The long and short positions are fiercely strangling at $137, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the extreme, and the 1-hour K-line of SOL is signaling a countdown to a trend reversal.
As an analyst closely watching the market, I must tell you that this K-line at 08:00 Beijing time on December 10th is extraordinary. SOL closed at $137.21, with a decline of only 0.44%, but beneath this calm lies a face-off between the EMA7 and EMA30 moving averages, an energy accumulation due to the extreme squeeze of the Bollinger Bands. A trend reversal is imminent.
01 The core battleground of the current long-short showdown
According to this latest chart, the price ($137.21) is being 'squeezed' by two key moving averages:
• Upper pressure: EMA7 is at $138.46, and the price is being suppressed by it. • Lower support: EMA30 is at $136.56, and the price has temporarily gained support.
More critically, the Bollinger Bands, with its upper and lower bands (144.58 / 128.19), have significantly narrowed, and the middle band is at $136.39. The price is close to the middle band, indicating that the market is about to choose a direction. My judgment is: 136.39 (Bollinger middle band) is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, the short-term trend is not damaged; if it breaks, it may quickly test the lower band around 128.
02 MACD gives a clear warning of momentum exhaustion
The MACD indicator below the chart reveals the current core contradiction:
• DIF value 1.30, DEA value 1.29, both values are almost completely overlapping. • The MACD histogram is only a slight 0.02.
This clearly indicates that the short-term upward momentum is nearing exhaustion. On an hourly level, this extreme convergence typically implies two possibilities: either a large volume increase forms an 'air refueling' and creates a golden cross to continue upward; or the DIF crosses below the DEA forming a dead cross, initiating a pullback. From the current market sentiment and trading volume, the latter seems slightly more probable.
03 Key positions and operational thinking
Combining the chart, I will simplify the core points as follows:
• Bullish defense line: $135.39 (MA30). This is the most important support of the day; if it is lost, the adjustment will deepen. • Bearish key point: $139.44 (MA7). This is immediate resistance and requires significant volume to break through. • Lifeline: $136.39 (Bollinger middle band). This is the focal price currently contended by bulls and bears.
Your operational thinking:
1. Aggressive: Can try a small long position around 136.5-137, with a strict stop loss below 135.3, targeting 139. 2. Conservative: Wait for a clear breakout above 139.5 (staying above MA7) to follow up, or wait for a pullback to the strong support area of 132-130 to layout. 3. Spot holders: As long as the price does not effectively drop below $128 (Bollinger lower band), the daily level upward structure remains intact, and you can continue to hold.
04 Future market predictions for the next 12-24 hours
Based on the chart structure, I believe the two most likely paths are:
• Path one (probability 60%): The price continues to fluctuate between $135.5 and $139 for several hours, waiting for the moving averages to flatten, then relying on EMA30 support to push upwards towards the $139.5-$140 resistance area. • Path two (probability 35%): The price breaks below $135.39, testing the $132-130 area downwards, completing a quick 'washout' to build a more solid bottom.
My personal opinion is clear: the current technical outlook leans towards short-term consolidation. Before the MACD re-forms a golden cross and the price rises above $139.5, it is not advisable to be overly aggressive. The strategy should slightly lean towards bullish, but must ensure protection against declines.
Currently, $137 is not just a price, but a psychological threshold and morale benchmark for both bulls and bears. The chart is the most genuine language of the market, telling us: a breakthrough is imminent, but the direction still needs to be confirmed. At critical positions, patiently waiting for the market to make its own choice is often wiser than blind guessing.
Now is a critical moment. Will you choose to wait, buy, or sell? Leave your judgment in the comments, and let's verify it together!
