$BTC breaks 100000, $ETH Ethereum skyrockets 4000【Coming Soon】The Federal Reserve's significant decision tonight: Hawkish rate cuts are coming, unprecedented internal divisions! The global financial markets are on high alert for an outbreak!
At 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday, global markets hold their breath — the Federal Reserve is about to announce its latest interest rate decision. The market has generally bet on: a third consecutive rate cut, by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%-3.75%.
But this is not a simple rate cut.
The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing a "serious division": one side fears a deterioration in the job market and calls for continued rate cuts; the other warns of inflation risks, believing that easing has reached its limit.
Thus, a key concept emerges — "hawkish rate cut".
This means: cutting rates while clearly indicating "this may be the last time in the near future".
Focus One: What will Powell say?
The post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference will be crucial for interpreting future policy directions. Goldman Sachs expects the statement may return to cautious wording like "the magnitude and timing of further adjustments", which means the threshold for another rate cut has been significantly raised.
Focus Two: Dot Plot and Internal Voting
The "dot plot" reflecting officials' interest rate predictions will be updated again. It is noteworthy that this vote may see multiple dissenting votes:
· Kansas City Fed President George (who opposed the rate cut last month) is expected to vote against again;
· More than one-third of economists believe St. Louis Fed President Bullard will also oppose, citing concerns over inflation;
· Governor Waller may call for a 50 basis point cut, continuing the "dovish dissent" from the previous two meetings.
Focus Three: Economic Data and Inflation Dilemma
Although the core PCE inflation slightly dropped to 2.8% in September, it still remains significantly above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the job market is beginning to show signs of fatigue: hiring decreased in October, and layoffs increased.
Focus Four: Could the Balance Sheet Shift?
In addition to interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also send another signal: restarting bond purchases (though not on a scale that would be called "quantitative easing"). In October, they just announced the halt of "balance sheet reduction"; now, due to market funding pressures, the purchasing plan may restart.
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