Why has silver risen? I personally understand the reasons as three points: expected catalysts + supply and demand imbalance + capital inflow triple resonance.

  1: Enhanced expectations of interest rate cuts: CME FedWatch shows a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December at 87.6%. Silver prices are relatively low, and gold prices have become luxury items, leading investors to turn to silver as a second choice.

  2: Expanded supply-demand gap: Silver has experienced continuous supply shortages for five years, with a gap of up to 95 million ounces by 2025, while mine production has decreased by 12% since 2020. The main principle is that tariffs in key mining areas have increased, and strikes and other impacts have intensified, while industrial demand for silver has grown by 65%, with explosive demand in photovoltaic and new energy sectors.

  3: Collective capital inflow: Silver ETFs hit new highs in the first four trading days of this month. With gold prices too high, silver offers better value for money. Consensus and sentiment often have more power than facts; the more it rises, the more people buy, and the more they buy, the more it rises.

  Will silver catch up with the pace of big brother gold, or even surpass gold? Only time can reveal the answer. My view is that silver can be allocated, but the quantity must be controlled. Certainly, silver's financial attributes are not strong; it is primarily driven by supply-demand relationships and market sentiment. #白银