The Bitcoin price has risen by approximately 2.8% in the past 24 hours and is now trading near 92,500 USD. The chart still shows a clear inverse head-and-shoulders formation pointing towards 108,500 USD, but every attempt to break upward has stalled.
Two clear reasons explain why the breakout fails – but the good news is that both can change in favor of Bitcoin.
A stubborn level and weak whale support still halt the movement.
Bitcoin continues to respect the inverse head-and-shoulders formation created on November 16. The pattern is still valid, but the neckline at 93,700 USD has rejected every clear breakout attempt so far. Until the Bitcoin price closes above this level, the pattern cannot be activated.
Do you want more token insights like this? Sign up for editor Harsh Notariya's daily crypto newsletter here.
Whale positioning is the second issue.
Players holding at least 1,000 BTC have reduced their holdings since November 19. The number fell to a monthly low of 1,303 on December 3 and is now close to that level. This weakens every attempt to break resistance as the group that usually confirms large breakouts remains cautious.
A similar pattern appeared between December 2 and 3.
The Bitcoin price reached 93,400 USD, but the whales decreased from 1,316 to 1,303. Shortly after, the price fell to 89,300 USD, a decline of approximately 4.4%.
When the price rises and whales decrease their holdings, momentum often weakens as the large buyers do not support the movement.
These two factors – the level at 93,700 USD and cautious whales – explain why BTC's breakout continues to fail. Since none of the issues are fundamental, there is still a chance that things could turn around if the conditions change.
A possible solution: A short squeeze could help the Bitcoin price break out.
The second half of the analysis sounds more positive. Even without support from the whales, Bitcoin has a strong potential for a short squeeze that could force a breakout.
On Binance, short liquidations amount to approximately 3.66 billion USD over the past 30 days, compared to 2.22 billion USD on the long side. Shorts are nearly 50% higher, creating pressure that can quickly be triggered if the Bitcoin price surpasses 93,700 USD again.
This mechanism has already proven itself several times this month.
Small price movements of 1–2% turned into stronger increases when short positions were liquidated.
If Bitcoin reaches a strong daily close above 93,700 USD, the short squeeze can create enough pressure to break 94,600 USD, the next key level. Then the whales may become less important in driving the movement. The momentum could carry the price further. When that happens, the whales may become more convinced and hold on.
Above 93,700 USD and 94,600 USD, the path opens towards 105,200 USD. If the area is cleared, Bitcoin positions towards the target level of 108,500 USD, which is an increase of approximately 15.7% from the neckline.
The inverse head-and-shoulders formation holds as long as the price is above 83,800 USD. A drop below 80,500 USD invalidates the pattern and increases the risk of a deeper decline if the whales continue to reduce their holdings.
Right now, it looks like this: two reasons block the breakout – the resistance line and the whales' caution – and both can change if buyers manage to get above 93,700 USD or if the short squeeze becomes dominant.
