The price of Bitcoin has risen about 2.8% in the last 24 hours and is trading near $92,500. The daily chart still shows a clear reverse head and shoulders pattern indicating $108,500, but every attempt to rise higher has stalled.
Two clear reasons explain why the breakout still fails – and the good news is that both could still change in Bitcoin's favor.
A stubborn level and weak whale support prevent the movement from progressing.
Bitcoin still respects the reverse head and shoulders pattern formed on November 16. The structure is still valid, but the neckline at $93,700 has rejected every clear attempt to rise so far. Until the Bitcoin price closes above this line, the pattern cannot be activated.
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Another issue relates to the positioning of whale investors.
The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC has decreased since November 19. The metric dropped to a monthly low of 1,303 on December 3 and has remained close to that level even now. This weakens all attempts to exceed the resistance level, as the group that usually validates large breakouts remains cautious.
A similar situation was seen on December 2–3.
The price of Bitcoin reached $93,400, but the number of whale investors dropped from 1,316 to 1,303. Shortly after this, the price corrected to $89,300, a decrease of about 4.4%.
When the price rises and whales reduce their holdings, the mood often calms down because large buyers do not support the movement.
These two factors – the $93,700 resistance and skeptical whales – explain why the breakout of BTC's price continues to fail. However, since neither issue is structural, both could still resolve if conditions change.
Correctable path: the short squeeze setup can help the Bitcoin price break out to the upside.
The story takes a more optimistic turn in the second part. Although whale investors do not support the rise, the Bitcoin short squeeze setup could still force a breakout.
On Binance, short liquidation volumes have accumulated to about $3.66 billion in the last 30 days, while the corresponding figure on the long side is $2.22 billion. The number of short positions is nearly 50% higher, creating pressure that could release quickly if the Bitcoin price rises again above $93,700.
This mechanism has been seen several times this month.
Small movements of 1–2% have turned into stronger price rallies as short positions have been liquidated.
If Bitcoin manages to close the day clearly above $93,700, the short squeeze could grow strong enough to break through the $94,600 barrier. At that point, whale investors' help may no longer be needed to initiate the movement. Simply the mood could carry the price higher. And as the mood strengthens, whales might be encouraged to join the rally.
Once $93,700 and $94,600 are surpassed, the path for a breakout opens towards $105,200. If the price of Bitcoin surpasses this area, the path to the fully measured target of $108,500 opens, which would be about a 15.7% rise from the neckline.
The reverse head and shoulders pattern remains valid above $83,800. If the price falls below $80,500, the structure will be invalidated, and there is a risk of a deeper correction if whales continue to reduce their holdings.
In the current situation, the overall picture looks like this: two reasons prevent a breakout – resistance level and caution among whale investors – but both are still changeable if buyers break through $93,700 or the short squeeze takes over.
