Bitcoin prices have risen by about 2.8% over the last 24 hours, reaching around $92,500. The daily chart maintains a clear structure of an 'inverted head and shoulders', which indicates potential growth to $108,500. However, each attempt to break through the upper level ends in failure.
There are two main reasons explaining why a breakout is not occurring, and both can change in favor of the asset.
The key level and the decline in support from 'whales' block the rise
Bitcoin continues to develop within the pattern of 'inverted head and shoulders', formed on November 16. The structure remains relevant, but the neckline at the level of $93,700 has still rejected all attempts at a confident breakthrough. As long as the price does not close above this line on a daily basis, the pattern will not be activated.
The second factor is the positioning of large asset holders (so-called 'whales').
The number of entities holding more than 1000 bitcoins has been decreasing since November 19. This figure dropped to a monthly low of 1303 on December 3 and remains close to this level. This trend weakens every breakout, as the group of investors traditionally confirming major movements remains cautious.
A similar situation was observed from December 2 to 3.
The price of Bitcoin reached $93,400, but the number of 'whales' decreased from 1316 to 1303. Shortly after, quotes adjusted to $89,300, which represented a drop of about 4.4%.
When the price rises and large holders reduce their positions, the momentum often fades as there is no support from key buyers.
It is these two factors — the barrier at $93,700 and the indecision of large investors — that explain why the price break of Bitcoin regularly fails. However, since neither of these issues is structural, they can be resolved with changes in market conditions.
The 'short squeeze' mechanism as a catalyst for breakthrough
The second part of the analysis shows a more optimistic picture. Even without active support from 'whales', Bitcoin has formed a strong potential for a 'short squeeze' capable of forcing a breakthrough.
On the Binance exchange, the volume of short position liquidations over the last 30 days reached nearly $3.66 billion. This significantly exceeds the liquidation figure of long positions, which amounted to $2.22 billion. The prevalence of short positions creates pressure that can quickly dissipate if the price of Bitcoin rises above $93,700 again.
This mechanism has already manifested several times this month.
Small price movements of 1–2% transformed into stronger rallies due to the liquidation of short positions.
If Bitcoin manages to confidently close on the daily chart above $93,700, the compression of short positions may gain enough strength to break through the next significant level at $94,600. In this case, a direct involvement of 'whales' will no longer be necessary to initiate the movement. Just the impulse itself can raise the price higher. After the formation of the impulse, large holders may be convinced of the necessity to join the rise.
Consolidation above $93,700 and $94,600 will open the way to $105,200. Overcoming this region positions Bitcoin to reach a full target mark of $108,500, which is an increase of about 15.7% from the neckline of the pattern.
The 'inverted head and shoulders' pattern remains relevant as long as the price stays above $83,800. A drop below $80,500 invalidates this structure and increases the risks of a deeper correction, especially if 'whales' continue to reduce their balances.
The current situation is described as follows: two reasons block the breakout — the resistance line and the caution of large investors, but both problems can be resolved if buyers force the level of $93,700 or the 'short squeeze' mechanism is activated.
