Can you believe it? The U.S. government has been shut down for 43 days, and even key data like unemployment and inflation have stopped being updated — yet the Federal Reserve still has to make a tough decision tonight: cut or not cut?

The market has gone crazy: Three weeks ago, only 30% of people guessed there would be a rate cut, and now it's shot up to 97%! Almost everyone is betting on a '25 basis point cut.' But here's the problem — the Federal Reserve is divided into two factions, 4 to 4 deadlocked!

Dovish members are anxious: "The unemployment rate has surged to 4.3%, a four-year high! Layoffs are coming, and if we don't save the market now, it will be too late!"

Hawkish defense of the bottom line: "Core inflation is still at 2.7%, higher than the target! Lowering interest rates now is like adding fuel to the fire of inflation!"

What’s more heartbreaking is—that this meeting is no longer purely technical. Trump openly calls out: 'We must cut interest rates significantly immediately!' Newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan voted in favor of a 50 basis point cut on the first day, while he is also an economic advisor to the White House... This is not an independent central bank at all; it is clearly a political pawn!

What’s more bizarre is that current Chairman Powell's term ends in May next year. The White House has stated: The next person must support interest rate cuts! How much of today's decision is based on the economy, and how much is based on job security?

Don't think this matter is far from you.

→ Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the dollar weakens, and global assets are revalued;

→ If interest rates ease, US stocks may rebound, but the risk of a bubble is also greater;

→ Even Bitcoin is at risk—there have been 7 interest rate meetings this year, with a post-meeting crash 6 times; the mantra of 'good news realized = sell signal' has become a curse!

Tonight, the Federal Reserve is not adjusting interest rates, but gambling on the fate of the country.

On one side is the cliff of declining employment, on the other side is the pit of rising inflation;

Above is the president's pressure, below is the market watching closely;

Without data in hand, there are no cards to play in the heart.

What can ordinary people do?

Don't blindly chase highs and lows. When everyone is certain that 'there will definitely be a cut', you should be wary of the blow from 'expectation gaps'. Real opportunities often lie hidden after chaos.

Tonight, the world holds its breath.

If the Federal Reserve bows, there will be short-term revelry; if it stands firm, the market will be turbulent.

But regardless of the outcome—perhaps the Pandora's box of central bank politicization has already been opened! Just reply '666' in the comments to receive a big red envelope! $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场反弹