Ethereum's price has risen by 6.7% in the last 24 hours and is trading close to 3,320 USD. The movement began after a breakout structure confirmed on December 3, and it still points towards 3,710 USD.
But mixed signals now suggest that the rise may take longer.
Breakout structure holds as a positive breakthrough approaches
Ethereum's price continues to move in the same inverted head-and-shoulders formation created at the end of November. The movement remains valid after December 3, as support at the right shoulder at 2,710 USD held. The structure weakens only if ETH falls below that level.
An important signal now is the bullish crossover forming between the 20-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 50-period EMA. An EMA, or exponentially moving average, follows the price but gives more weight to the most recent candles.
A bullish crossover usually indicates that buyers are getting stronger and that the trend may continue upward. That signal could drive the ETH price higher towards the target of 3,710 USD.
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This crossover is created only if sellers do not step in. An on-chain metric shows why caution is still required.
Rising paper profits provide an opportunity to take profits
Ethereum Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the unrealized gains that all ETH wallets have. When NUPL rises, more holders have reason to sell as they have greater unrealized profit.
ETH's NUPL has now risen to 0.296, indicating that the indicator has entered the Optimism–Anxiety zone. It’s the highest level since the beginning of November.
The last time NUPL reached a similar level – on December 3 – ETH fell about 5.2% within two days as holders took profits.
A similar situation is visible now. More are taking profits as ETH approaches resistance. Therefore, the chance that some sell before the bullish crossover is complete also increases. If that happens, the crossover may fail and momentum could stall, even if the breakout pattern holds. Therefore, one might have to wait longer for the next movement.
Important price levels for Ethereum: What opens the way to 3,710 USD — and what stops it
If the bullish crossover is confirmed and NUPL pressure remains low, Ethereum's price has a clear path upward:
A 12-hour close above 3,390 USD is the first signal
The next resistance is at 3,570 USD
If ETH goes above 3,570 USD, the entire movement up to 3,710 USD corresponds to a projection of 20% from the breakout point.
If selling increases instead, the structure weakens. ETH is valid as long as the price remains above 2,710 USD, but a fall below 2,610 USD invalidates the pattern and indicates a larger pullback.
Right now, ETH is balancing between two forces: a bullish crossover that could drive the price to 3,710 USD, and increased paper profits that could delay this. The coming sessions will determine which side dominates.
