Entry Price: $0.265-0.27 (current $0.2666 available for transaction)
Leverage multiple: 7x
Stop Loss Level: $0.248 (-6.7%, support at the middle band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands)
Take Profit Target: $0.305 (+14.6%, corresponding to technical resistance level)
Holding Duration: 24-36 hours after entering
Core Logic: ENA, as a synthetic dollar protocol (FDV $4B), is the direct beneficiary of this Federal Reserve meeting. Its core mechanism USDe provides stablecoin yields to users through a delta-neutral strategy, and the yield advantage will further expand in a rate-cutting environment. The Anchorage custody yield rewards starting on December 4 have attracted a large amount of institutional funds. On-chain data shows that AAVE recently saw a whale operation with $470M in ETH deposits and $220M in USDT loans, with some funds flowing to the Ethena protocol. Daily active users increased from 9,990 on November 20 to 11,609 on December 4 (+16%), accumulating clear signals.
Technical analysis shows a breakout pattern: the price has re-established itself above the middle Bollinger Band ($0.265) on the 4-hour chart, the MACD golden cross is confirmed (histogram turning positive at 0.002), and the RSI at 52.4 is in a healthy range. Although the daily line is still below the 200-day moving average ($0.40), short-term momentum has been activated. Despite a 3.12% pullback over the past 7 days, it is actually a buildup at a higher position. The derivatives market open interest at $356M has slightly decreased by 2.59% from the previous day, but the Binance funding rate has turned positive at +0.001062%, indicating that bulls are starting to enter the market.
Risk management: Stop loss triggered losses of about 47% under 7x leverage, with take profit returns of about 102%. The main risks come from two aspects: first, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly maintains interest rates, the narrative of stablecoin yield protocols will be undermined, potentially leading to a rapid pullback to $0.24; second, ENA tokens face ongoing unlocking pressure (circulation rate only 48%), with 49 million tokens just released on December 5th, and the next unlocking on January 2, 2026, short-term supply pressure is controllable. Attention should be paid to changes in funding rates on Hyperliquid and Bybit; if it turns deeply negative (<-0.01%), caution for reversal is advised.
Operation details: Main position 70% built at market price in the $0.266-0.268 range, remaining 30% limit order at $0.26 waiting for a possible pullback. Stop loss set at $0.248 (4-hour moving average support), take profit divided into three levels: $0.285 closing 30% (basic profit), $0.295 closing 40% (technical resistance), and the last 30% targeting $0.305 for a peak. Due to ample liquidity (24-hour trading volume $270M), a $100,000 order on Binance/Bybit has slippage at 0.3%. If the price breaks through $0.28 and stabilizes after the Federal Reserve meeting, an additional 20% can be added to chase the rise, but total position should not exceed 1.5 times the initial capital.$ENA #美联储FOMC会议
