Tonight is destined to be sleepless! The Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision of the year at 3 AM, and global markets are holding their breath.

🔥 Key Highlights: "Hawkish Rate Cut" and Unprecedented Internal Division

The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, but the real storm lies in the signal of a "hawkish rate cut"—that is, cutting rates while strongly hinting that this may be a "final easing" to raise the threshold for future rate cuts.

📉 Three Major Focuses That Determine Market Direction

1. Public Internal Division: This vote may see multiple dissenting votes, leading to a fierce showdown between doves (like Governor Mian who calls for a 50 basis point cut) and hawks (like Schmidt and Musallam opposing the rate cut).

2. Powell's "Balancing Act": Every word from Chairman Powell will be scrutinized, as he needs to walk a tightrope between supporting the economy and curbing inflation expectations; his wording will be extremely cautious.

3. Setting the Tone for Next Year's Policy: The "dot plot" reflecting interest rate forecasts and economic predictions will outline the policy contours for 2026 for the first time, providing key clues for Powell's policy shift before leaving office next year.

⚡ Market Impact: Rate cuts are not the focus; "stopping" is

For the market, the rate cut itself has already been priced in. The real engine of market movement lies in the Fed's hint at "when to stop cutting rates." If the "hawkish" signal is clear, the market may face significant turbulence.

In summary: Tonight, the Federal Reserve not only decides the interest rate but also sets the tone and rhythm for next year's policy. #加密市场反弹