CZ Declares Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Over, Hints at 'Supercycle' Fueled by Institutional Growth
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) suggests the traditional four-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle, historically linked to halving events, is over. The market is now in a new, more mature phase, with potential for a "Bitcoin supercycle" extending well into 2026 and beyond, driven by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and market maturation.
The current price of Bitcoin is around $92,656.30 USD (as of December 10, 2025).
The End of the Four-Year Cycle
CZ's view is echoed by other industry experts, such as the Bitwise CEO, who note that the crypto market has evolved significantly and the old cycle patterns may no longer apply.
Market Maturity: The industry is seeing more sustained institutional investment, which dampens the extreme boom-and-bust volatility of earlier cycles.
Institutional Inflows: Factors like the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have introduced massive amounts of institutional capital, providing consistent buying pressure and a stronger market foundation compared to previous cycles driven mainly by retail investors.
Deceleration, Not Decline: While the percentage gains in the current cycle might be smaller than initial exponential rises of the past, the overall uptrend is expected to last longer, potentially stretching the cycle to four and a half or five years.
Supercycle Predictions
The "supercycle" theory suggests a prolonged period of strong growth.
Price Targets: Analysts at firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered have updated their price targets, forecasting a potential peak in 2027 at around $200,000-$225,000. Other analysts believe BTC could reach $300,000 by 2026.
Current Indicators: Despite short-term volatility and recent ETF outflows in November 2025, technical indicators suggest the market is still in its early-to-mid bullish stages, and none of the traditional 30 cycle-top signals have been triggered.
