#加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

🔥Tonight, the Fed is highly likely to cut by another 25bp, with the options market pricing probability >90%. But don't rush to go ALL IN; the last three rate cuts taught us one thing:

'Whether to cut or not' has never been the focus; how to cut and what to say afterward determines whether Bitcoin will surge to 105,000 or fall back to 80,000.

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One, let's first give the conclusion: short-term is positive, mid-term depends on Powell's 'facial expression', long-term remains a liquidity bull market

1. Short-term (0-24h)

As long as a 25bp rate cut is implemented, BTC/ETH usually rises by 3%-7% first, this is the 'reflex' of program trading and leveraged short positions.

Data source: In the past 5 FOMC meetings, BTC averaged +4.8% and ETH averaged +6.2% on the night of a rate cut.

2. Mid-term (1-4 weeks)

The key point is whether Powell changes the number of rate cuts in 2026 from '2 times' to 'more than 3 times', and whether he announces 'ending the balance sheet reduction early'.

① If the dot plot moves down + hints at QE returning → risk assets are fully Risk-On, BTC is expected to test previous highs again.

② If he stubbornly insists on 'data dependence, no preset path' → US long-term treasury yields rebound, real interest rates rise, coin prices fluctuate and decline at high levels.

3. Long-term (3-12 months)

No matter what the wording is tonight, starting January 2026, the Fed plans to buy bonds to expand the balance sheet again, officially shifting global dollar liquidity from 'tightening' to 'easing'

Historical rule: During the upward phase of M2 year-on-year, BTC annualized returns > 120%, outperforming all major asset classes.

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Two, three charts to understand the 'rate cut - coin price' transmission chain

1. Dollar DXY ↓ → Bitcoin inversely ↑

Rate cut → dollar weakens → non-dollar funds lower the cost of buying coins, while gold, Bitcoin, and other 'non-sovereign assets' see premiums rise.

2. Risk-free interest rate ↓ → Risk premium ↓

Every 10bp drop in the 10-year real interest rate raises the fair valuation model for BTC (MVRV) by about 6%. The current model shows a reasonable price of 96,000, and if the real interest rate drops another 30bp, the valuation range moves up to 108,000-112,000.

3. Corporate financing rates ↓ → Mining companies/micro-strategies leverage again

A low-interest environment reduces debt issuance costs, the MicroStrategy model can be replicated, forming a positive cycle of 'issuing debt → buying coins → raising net worth → issuing more debt'.

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Three, negative scenario script: the market has already priced in, a single 'hawkish rate cut' can flip the situation

1. Scenario A: Rate cut + dot plot adjustment

It seems like a rate cut, but in reality, it raises the median interest rate for 2026, equivalent to 'hawkish'. The dollar index instantly surged by 2%, and BTC dipped by 8%.

2. Scenario B: Rate cut + Powell suppresses inflation expectations

Emphasizing 'won't return to zero interest rates', long-term US treasury yields soar, real interest rates turn positive, risk assets fall across the board.

3. Scenario C: Liquidity trap

Rate cuts only stay short-term, banks are reluctant to lend, funds are stuck in reverse repos, M2 fails to rise — coin prices open high and close low, positive news turns negative.

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Four, retail operation checklist

Role Strategy Take profit Stop loss

Short-term leveraged players go long within 30 minutes after the rate cut, no overnight positions +5% -2%

Spot holding players reduce positions by 20% if it breaks 98,000, keeping dry powder for Powell's speech 105,000 89,000

Options players buy 'straddles' to bet on volatility, immediately close positions after the rate cut 50% premium goes to zero

Miners/companies issue long-term debt during the interest rate decline cycle, locking in low costs —— ——

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Five, a one-sentence summary

A rate cut is not magic; it simply loosens the 'liquidity faucet' half a turn; whether the water flows to farmland (risk assets) or swamps (reverse repos) depends on how Powell turns it back tonight.

So, don't ask 'is the rate cut good or bad', first ask 'after the rate cut, does the water really flow out?' Those who like and comment all live in seaside villas, Musk's dog p🔥u🔥p🔥p🔥i🔥e🔥s$BTC

(For reference only, not investment advice, those who like and comment live in seaside villas)$ETH $DOGE