#YieldGuildGames It was adjustment day this Tuesday (09), a more technical movement, although still reflecting the impasse of the Bolsonaro family, forcing the spotlight on 01, Flavio Bolsonaro. As a result, the Ibovespa fell 0.52%, to 158,187 points, and the dollar rose 0.26% to R$ 5.438.
The U.S. futures indices are operating higher this Wednesday (10), while investors prepare for the Fed's monetary policy decision. The market bets that the Central Bank will reduce its basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, as it did in its meetings in September and October.
Super Wednesday, with Copom and FOMC meetings simultaneously. In the U.S., the chances of a 0.25 pp interest rate cut are 89% at the CME Group, while in Brazil, Copom is expected to maintain the Selic at 15%. In both cases, the expectation is for the statements, which may signal the future decisions of the monetary authorities. On the agenda, highlight for the IPCA of November (9 AM), which may still adjust some bets for January. Regarding the Fed's decision, there is consensus on the new interest rate cut, which should be reduced to the range between 3.50% and 3.75% per annum. However, Jerome Powell is not expected to stop being cautious, especially since he is in a conflict with President Trump, who is eager to replace him by May. Even so, it does not seem that the delayed data from the shutdown is influencing the decision.
In Brazil, the vote in the Chamber on the dosimetry project exploded last night, which could remove Flavio Bolsonaro from the race and open space for Tarcísio de Freitas. Bolsonaro's sentence, for example, would drop to 20 years, from where he could be in closed regime for only two years and a few months.
