#美联储决议 At 4 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision. This is not just a confirmation of a 'rate cut', but also a fierce game regarding future expectations. Currently, the market is nearly 100% betting on a 25 basis point rate cut this time, which is not the suspense of tonight -5-8. The real powder keg lies in the details.
Tonight's three core highlights determine whether the cryptocurrency market will rise or fall in the second half of the night:
The resolution statement and Powell's 'lip service': The words the market fears most are 'data-dependent', which usually means 'this time we cut, but next time it's not certain'. If the wording leans 'hawkish', emphasizing that inflation is still above target, or suggesting a possible wait-and-see period, market enthusiasm will instantly cool -1-5. This is what is known as a 'hawkish rate cut'.
Dot plot 'spoiler': This is an anonymous forecast chart of future rates by Federal Reserve officials. Focus on the median rate forecast for 2026. If the dot plot shows that the room for rate cuts in 2026 is compressed (for example, less than two times), it will directly reverse the market's optimistic sentiment towards future easing, bearing risks for assets-1-5.
'Balance sheet expansion' hint: Besides interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also discuss restarting the purchase of short-term government bonds to manage market liquidity. This is seen as a disguised form of 'printing money'. Any clear signal regarding balance sheet expansion is a direct injection into market liquidity, potentially becoming an unexpected bullish factor for cryptocurrencies-1.
In summary, tonight's script is highly likely not a one-directional celebration:
Dovish Surprise (Bullish): Interest rate cut realization + Mild wording + Dot plot shows more room for rate cuts. This is the ideal scenario, which may push BTC to attack again.
Neutral/Hawkish realization (Volatile or Bearish): Only realizing interest rate cuts, but the future path is unclear or tight. This is 'buy the expectation, sell the fact', and the market may retreat from highs due to exhaustion of bullish sentiment, entering severe volatility-5.
Unexpected Black Swan (Highly Bearish): A serious divergence in voting (possibly up to 4-5 dissenting votes), or Powell explicitly suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026-1-5.
Tips for everyone: Before the announcement, market liquidity usually thins out, and any unexpected news may be amplified, leading to price 'spikes'. It is recommended to manage positions well and set stop losses in advance. At that time, I will be in the live broadcast room with everyone, interpreting the statement word by word, analyzing the dot plot, and predicting the momentary shift in market sentiment.
Follow me, at four in the morning, we won't miss it, let's decode the Federal Reserve's code together!
