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Cryptocurrency Market: Beware of 'Selling the Fact' and High Volatility
Market Background: The interest rate cut has already been fully priced in by the market (probability of 97%) -6. Historical data shows that after most FOMC meetings in 2025, Bitcoin has experienced pullbacks -6. Before the announcement, the market had already seen a rise due to 'buying the expectation', therefore the risk of 'selling the fact' after the announcement is very high -8.
Trading Ideas:
Short-term: Market sentiment has shifted from optimistic to cautious. Combined with the EA parameters adjusted for you earlier, be sure to maintain extremely low positions or temporarily observe, avoiding passive stop-losses in thin liquidity and high volatility. If a sharp drop occurs due to 'hawkish' interpretations, don't rush to catch the bottom.
Medium-term: Pay close attention to 'improvements in market structure' -2. If the Federal Reserve releases clearer signals to improve market liquidity in the future (such as balance sheet expansion), that would be a more sustainable basis for an upward trend.
Reduce Risk Exposure: Within 1-2 trading days after the announcement, the market needs to digest new expectations, and volatility may increase. It is strongly recommended that the EA you set earlier maintain the minimum position or pause, prioritizing capital protection.
Shift to Observation and Waiting: Pay close attention to subsequent key economic data (such as inflation and employment), as this data will validate the Federal Reserve's stance of 'data dependence' and trigger new adjustments in expectations.
Look for Structural Opportunities: If the market experiences an overly panic-driven decline, start paying attention to those assets with solid fundamentals closely related to macro liquidity, preparing for the next round of market trends.
