#美联储降息 Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell unleashed a set of measures referred to by the market as a 'dovish chorus': a scheduled interest rate cut, a restart of quantitative easing, and the first acknowledgment of downside risks in the labor market. However, the market's response was a 'high diving' act—Bitcoin, after a brief surge, turned downward, while Ethereum plummeted directly from a high of $3447.
This dramatic scene has shattered a cruel truth: all optimistic expectations have long been overdrawn, and the 'good news turning into bad news' scythe has swung down once again.
But the good show has only just begun.
Powell has personally pointed the market to the next stage: the 'data dependence mode' is officially restarting. This means the Fed has temporarily put away the 'baton'; the future, whether up or down, depends entirely on economic data. The initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7, released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, will become the first 'mandate' of the data era and the market's first 'judgment day.'
Why can this weekly data determine life and death tonight?
Because it precisely targets the most vulnerable point in the current global game — the cracks in the job market. Last night's foundation of all of Powell's dovish statements was his first public acknowledgment of 'downside risks in the labor market.' If the job market really begins to deteriorate, the Fed will have to accelerate rate cuts to rescue the market.
The initial jobless claims are the most real-time and sensitive 'thermometer' for measuring employment health.
Tonight's expected value is 220,000 people. This is not just a number; it is a switch that can ignite the market.
If the published value is < 220,000 (like 215,000): the market will face a heavy blow. This means the job market remains resilient, and Powell's concerns may have been exaggerated. The threshold for future rate cuts by the Fed will be instantly raised, market panic will intensify, and last night's sharp decline may just be the 'appetizer,' with a larger wave of selling likely to come.
If the published value > 220,000 (like 240,000): this will directly validate Powell's concerns and confirm that employment is cooling. The market will immediately interpret this as: the downward pressure on the economy is immense, and the Fed must cut rates faster and more aggressively next year! At that time, the frenzy in risk assets may be instantly ignited, and cryptocurrencies, extremely sensitive to interest rates, may usher in a violent rebound.
My perspective: the rebound is a 'lifeline,' and the logic of the bears is closing in.
Based on the above reasoning, our core strategy chain is clear and ruthless:
The Fed's 'dovish good news' has already been fully priced in by the market.
The market focus has completely shifted to economic fundamentals, entering the 'data guessing' phase.
The first key data tonight will determine whether the 'recession trade' (bullish) or the 'tightening trade' (bearish) will dominate the market.
Therefore, any rebound in cryptocurrency prices due to weak data (favorable for rate cuts) could be the 'golden window' for bulls to escape the top, and precisely the timing for bears to increase their positions.
The reason lies in the larger macro shadows approaching — the Bank of Japan is likely to announce an interest rate hike on December 19. Once this becomes reality, global liquidity will tighten further. In the fragile game of 'data dependence,' any data falling short of expectations could become the last straw that breaks the market.
Tonight at 21:30, please fasten your seatbelt.
We are not just looking at a number, but at how it tears apart consensus, reshapes expectations, and sets the tone for at least a month of brutal market conditions.
This is no longer Powell's stage; this is the micro battlefield of bulls and bears. For a market that has long been overhyped, any pullback is the last mercy granted by the market.
