The old players in the crypto world all understand: 'After a big drop, there will be a rebound, but how high the rebound goes depends on whether there is a 'story' to support it.' Today, the 4-hour K-line of ZEC has written this sentence on the market — from the 'hell-level low point' that broke through 300 dollars at the beginning of the month, to now standing at 420 dollars and gasping for breath, it looks like 'it has dropped deeply and is recovering', but if you carefully examine today's news and the market, there are quite a few 'hidden dangers' in this rebound.
First, let's look at the 'clear signals' from the market: This morning ZEC opened at 427, reached a high of 428, and has now fallen back to 420. It seems like a 'minor correction', but when combined with on-chain data, it gets interesting — the 'largest short position on ZEC' on Hyperliquid added to their short position today; they had previously made a floating profit of 3 million but are about to lose it all, yet they are stubbornly holding on; on the other hand, the whale that bottomed out at 301 dollars last week has already transferred 18,000 ZEC to Gemini this morning, which is clearly a 'take profit' rhythm.
I dare say this rebound is essentially a result of "two emotions stacking up": one is that the market was boosted by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut (last night BTC surged to 94000), and privacy coins, as "oversold rebound players," were carried along by the funds; the second is that ZEC's co-founder launched the "Phreeli privacy phone" in the U.S. yesterday. Although this product does not generate actual revenue for now, the story of "zero-knowledge proof applications" just hits the current market's pain point of lacking a "new narrative."
But here comes a reality check: today's trading volume for ZEC is "fake." Look at the trading volume in the 4-hour chart; the green bars during the rebound look intimidating, but in fact, it is "longs and shorts cutting each other"—a trader opened a 50 million ZEC long position this morning, and immediately an address dumped 2.66 million in short positions to hedge. This is not a "joint effort to push up," but rather "short-term funds betting on tonight's Federal Reserve decision," a typical case of "event-driven market." Without fundamental support, it could easily fall apart.
Now let's talk about the technical aspects: the RSI is currently at 45, stuck in a neutral range, indicating that the bulls do not have complete control; the KDJ's J value has dropped to 14, which is a "turning signal after being overbought." Experienced traders know that in this situation, chasing longs is likely to hand over the positions to others. Remember that wave at the end of November, when ZEC fell from 750 dollars to 300 dollars? That was when the KDJ turned and couldn't hold up. The current trend is simply a "replication of the first half."
Moreover, there is a detail that many people did not notice today: Binance adjusted the margin collateral rate for ZEC a few days ago, which means that "leveraged funds are hesitant to act aggressively." Previously, ZEC could bounce from 300 to 420, relying on leveraged long positions, but now with the reduction in collateral rate, the cost of funds has increased. It will be at least twice as difficult to push to the pressure level of 450.
Finally, here’s a question for you to ponder: if tonight's Federal Reserve decision is "hawkish," and the market drops, will ZEC, as an oversold rebound coin, be the first to test the support at 380? If it is "dovish," can it hold above 450? I’ll put it bluntly: in this rebound, those who can reduce their positions above 420 are smart, and those who dare to chase are either gamblers or have never suffered losses from a "V-shaped rebound followed by an A-shaped drop."
A twelve-year journey in finance, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the crypto world: Insight into the market, move steadily forward. Follow Tian Shifu to learn how to grow your investments steadily. In investing, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a major taboo in the crypto world!
