Is the probability of a short-term rise high?

BTC ETH market analysis, in-depth interpretation of Powell's latest speech
1. Policy outcome realization
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the shoe has dropped.
2. Dot plot signals: huge divergence in the long term
The 2026 dot plot shows significant divergence, with the median only expecting 1-2 rate cuts.
However, it should be noted that with the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman next year, there are significant uncertainties in the policy path, making the current dot plot of limited reference value.
3. Key clarification on "easing" (key point)
This month, the Federal Reserve actually released about $40 billion in liquidity to the market.
Powell clearly explained at the press conference: "Purchasing government bonds is solely for reserve management."
This is not equivalent to traditional QE-style easing, but essentially belongs to: a relatively loose bottom-supporting liquidity operation.
4. Core meaning of Powell's speech (two sentences summary)
(1) Everything will be determined by subsequent economic data.
(2) Leave a “well-functioning” economic environment for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to avoid policy loss of control.
5. Market judgment (personal opinion)
In the short term, the market may pull back for a few days, which is a normal digestion process of emotions and expectations; however, after the 16th, the market is expected to gradually return to a normal rhythm.
Last month's major crash was the result of multiple negative events concentrated together, and under the current policy and liquidity background, the probability of reoccurrence in the short term is extremely low.
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