The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates again, but this 25 basis points feels more like a compromise full of cracks rather than the 'shot in the arm' the market expected.
The December FOMC meeting has concluded, with the federal funds rate lowered as expected to 3.50%-3.75%, marking a 'triple cut' since September. However, behind this apparent unified action lies the most severe internal division within the Federal Reserve in nearly six years — there were actually 3 dissenting votes among the 9 voting officials, a rare split that is enough to raise alarms for any astute investor.
Divided Federal Reserve, ambiguous signals
This controversy can be described as 'polarized': one side believes a 50 basis point cut is necessary to address the risks of a cooling job market, while the other side argues against lowering rates. Ironically, while the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, it has also announced the resumption of Treasury bond purchases on December 12. This combination of 'rate cuts + balance sheet expansion' seems like a dual benefit, but it actually reveals deep-seated anxieties: the weakening job market has made officials uneasy, yet slightly 'high' inflation prevents them from fully pivoting to a dovish stance.
Powell is trying to maintain balance on a tightrope, but what the market interprets is the "hawkish soul under the dovish guise." The dot plot shows that decision-makers expect rate cuts in 2025 to be extremely cautious, and they may even remain inactive for a long time. This means that the market's expectation of a "sustained easing" narrative is close to collapse.
Why is the cryptocurrency market not buying it?
$BTC and $ETH did not experience the anticipated frenzy after the announcement, but instead fell into fluctuations. Behind this "dulling of positive news" are three logics:
1. Expectations have long been fulfilled: The strong rise that began in October is essentially a "prepaid transaction" for rate cuts. When the shoe drops, without unexpected surprises, profit-taking naturally chooses to exit.
2. The shadow of "higher for longer": If interest rates remain high for longer than expected, all risk asset valuation models will face re-evaluation pressure. This is a sword of Damocles hanging over high-volatility cryptocurrency assets.
3. Weakening liquidity narrative: When the Federal Reserve itself is wavering in policy direction, the determination for new funds to enter is inevitably hindered. The short-term trend of the cryptocurrency market depends more on the game of funds within the market than on macro easing.
The choice at the crossroads
This "divided" rate cut reveals a key fact: The Federal Reserve itself is lost between the soft landing of the economy and inflation risks. For the cryptocurrency market, this means that relying on a unified narrative of "macro easing" has come to an end, and future trends will depend more on fundamentals, application scenarios, and sector rotation.
In 2025, we may see a more differentiated market—high-quality assets building real value amidst fluctuations, while projects driven purely by narrative face the test of liquidity exhaustion.
So, is this the starting point of a bull market or a continuation of a bear market?
The answer may not lie in the Federal Reserve's conference room but in the decisions of each participant.
The uncertainty of the macro environment remains, but the maturity of the market is precisely reflected in: no longer blindly cheering for single policy stimuli. Next, whether BTC and $ETH can break out into an independent trend depends on whether funds are willing to continue betting on risky assets in an ambiguous landscape.
What do you think of this "divided" rate cut? What do you think will be the core driving force in the cryptocurrency market in 2025? Is it macro liquidity, institutional entry, or breakthroughs at the application level?
Feel free to leave your in-depth opinions in the comments section. If this article has helped you clarify your thoughts, please follow @币圈掘金人 for the latest market analysis, and don’t forget to share it with friends who are also paying attention to this macro game as we seek certainty in uncertainty. #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场反弹 #美国初请失业金人数 $BTC
