Brothers, there’s a project in the crypto space that’s quite interesting lately — KITE. It claims to be the 'super fuel for AI agents network', but upon a closer look, wow, 82% of the tokens are locked up, and they won't be gradually released until the end of 2026. It feels like discovering a gold mine, but the keys to the main gate won't be available for two years, so for now, we can only dig up some scraps. Exciting, right?
The current reality: the price is 'lying flat', and the market is in wait-and-see mode.
First, let's look at the market. KITE's price has been oscillating between $0.076 and $0.080 in this small range recently, unable to go up or down. The gray areas on the chart (support/resistance) are like walls, and the price bounces back when it touches them. What does this indicate? The market is quite conflicted right now. Everyone knows there's an AI story behind it, but as soon as they look up, they see the “token unlock mountain” of 2026. Who wouldn't feel anxious? So the price has to just 'lie flat' and wait for clearer signals.
Dual narrative: one side is a rocket, the other side is an iceberg
The story of this project can be described as half sea water and half fire.
🔥 Rocket side: Truly useful AI 'gasoline'
KITE is not just empty talk. Its underlying system runs an AI network called Bittensor, which already has subnets like Bittensor and Codatta that process data and run AI agents, using KITE for frictionless micropayments. Simply put, if AI applications are sports cars, KITE aims to be efficient gasoline.
Recently, it has also been expanding its ecosystem, such as bridging Avalanche and collaborating with Pieverse to develop games. Each additional partnership adds a measure of genuine demand. Referencing similar paths like Akash (decentralized computing), during its explosive ecological phase, prices once soared over 300%. If KITE's AI agent economy really takes off, buyers will purchase coins to use, not just for speculation, which will solidify the fundamentals.
🧊 Iceberg side: The 'unlock tsunami' of 2026
But the fatal issue is the lockup structure. The total amount is 10 billion, with currently only 18% in circulation, and the remaining 82% will be unlocked linearly, with all released by November 2026. This is the 'sword of dilution' hanging over us.
Let's do the math: at the current price, the fully circulating market cap could reach nearly 930 million USD, but the circulating market value is only 140 million. This means that if demand does not keep up, the market will have to absorb potential selling pressure of more than five times within two years. There are many historical lessons: projects like DYDX, which experience large unlocks, often see prices drop sharply by more than 60% before and after a large amount of tokens are unlocked.
Key game: Demand growth vs. selling pressure expectations
So for holders (or those looking to get in), the core question is: before 2026, can its real usage demand outpace the fear of selling pressure brought on by unlocking?
This is not something that can be solved by pure technical analysis; it requires looking at two points:
Ecological data: Are the number of subnets, active agents, and on-chain payment volumes, these 'hard facts', continuously increasing? If they hit new highs every month, the story is solid.
Relative strength: Especially keep an eye on the KITE/BTC trading pair. If the market drops and it holds steady, or even rises while the market is flat, it indicates that smart money is betting on the AI narrative, ignoring market noise. The key level is 0.00000082 BTC (about $0.085); if it stabilizes here, it means funds are saying, 'I don't care about the macro environment, I just want AI.'
How should retail investors operate? Don't gamble, but 'follow'
Such projects are not suitable for ALL IN gambling; they are better suited for small position trend tracking.
In the short term, we will see if it can break through the $0.085 - $0.090 range with significant volume. A breakthrough and stabilization might lead to a wave of emotional trading.
In the medium term, it is essential to continuously monitor the ecological progress announced by the authorities every month. If the number of subnets, partners, and on-chain transaction volumes are rapidly increasing, the unlocking panic may be postponed or even alleviated.
In the long term, look at the nodes from the end of 2025 to 2026. If by then KITE has built a robust AI agent economy, the unlocked coins may be directly taken by institutions or ecological partners, which would be a positive sign. However, if ecological progress is slow, caution is warranted.
Summary: A race against time
The script of KITE is essentially a race against time: within less than two years, to create enough AI application demand, enough to make the market feel 'we're not afraid of the 82% of coins coming out in 2026; we can handle it.'
This tests the team's execution ability and ecological attractiveness. If successful, it could become the benchmark for AI + Crypto; if it fails, it may lead to a long period of decline.
So, if you are looking at this project, ask less 'Will it rise tomorrow?' and more 'What has its subnet accomplished this month?' In this market, those who survive are not those who can guess the best, but those who can adjust based on real data.
Remember: when walking on thin ice, what you need to focus on is not how thick the ice is, but your foot placement with each step, and whether there are cracks opening up ahead.
