#原油 Early oil strategy on November 12
Current oil prices are in a phase of supply pressure + continued short-term decline:
Iraqi oil resumption directly presses oil prices down to $58.50, the geopolitical uncertainty and the limited support effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations lead to a dominant short-term supply shock;
API inventory data is key to short-term fluctuations, and the current market is bearish;
The daily chart is in a minor oscillation, testing the support at $56, the MACD below the zero line shows that the bearish strength is weak but the trend has not changed;
The 1-hour cycle is continuously pressured by the moving averages, and the short-term downward rhythm is clear;
The moving average system on the 1-hour chart suppresses prices, with bearish momentum dominating below the MACD zero line, and the early session's weak oscillation at low levels conforms to the characteristics of continued downward alternation.
Operational suggestion: short when rebounding meets pressure, light position shorts near 58.8-58.9
Defense: 59.1
Target: 58.3, 58.1
