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#原油 12.15 Afternoon Crude Oil Thoughts
The geopolitical news of the U.S. seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker only brings a short-term pulse boost, failing to change the core contradiction of excess supply and demand in crude oil; the dual pressures of global policy games and supply-side oversupply continue to suppress oil prices, while the impact of geopolitical disturbances is fleeting, and the market returns to a logic of oscillation with a bearish bias;
The daily chart shows minor oscillations and continues to test the strong support at $56. The 1-hour chart shows prices rebounding after dropping from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846, with the current price at 57.500 in the middle of the range, facing resistance at 58.859 above and short-term support at 56.846 below, with no clear trend direction, overall oscillating with a bearish bias;
The 1-hour MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bulls only releasing short-term momentum during the rebound phase. Indicators show that there is a clear sell signal above 58.00, the Bollinger Bands are contracting and prices are running below the middle track, confirming the overall dominance of bears.
Trading Suggestions: Light short near 57.8-58.0
Stop-loss: 58.9
Target: 57.0, 57.3
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议
The geopolitical news of the U.S. seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker only brings a short-term pulse boost, failing to change the core contradiction of excess supply and demand in crude oil; the dual pressures of global policy games and supply-side oversupply continue to suppress oil prices, while the impact of geopolitical disturbances is fleeting, and the market returns to a logic of oscillation with a bearish bias;
The daily chart shows minor oscillations and continues to test the strong support at $56. The 1-hour chart shows prices rebounding after dropping from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846, with the current price at 57.500 in the middle of the range, facing resistance at 58.859 above and short-term support at 56.846 below, with no clear trend direction, overall oscillating with a bearish bias;
The 1-hour MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bulls only releasing short-term momentum during the rebound phase. Indicators show that there is a clear sell signal above 58.00, the Bollinger Bands are contracting and prices are running below the middle track, confirming the overall dominance of bears.
Trading Suggestions: Light short near 57.8-58.0
Stop-loss: 58.9
Target: 57.0, 57.3
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议
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#原油 12.15 Morning Oil Outlook
The geopolitical benefits of the U.S. seizing and sanctioning oil tankers only provided temporary support for oil prices and failed to break the core fundamentals of a loose supply and demand for crude oil. Doubts about the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts and the slow recovery of global crude oil demand continue to suppress oil prices, leading to a fleeting effect of geopolitical boosts, with oil prices trapped in a turbulent mire;
The daily candlestick chart shows alternating bullish and bearish tests at the strong support level of 56. The hourly chart shows prices fluctuating in a narrow range of 56.80-58.10, with the current price at 57.47 positioned at the midpoint of the range. There is strong resistance at 58.10 above and short-term support at 56.80 below, with no clear one-way trend, and fluctuations becoming the main operational rhythm;
The hourly MACD is running weakly below the zero line; although bears dominate, the momentum is mild. Indicators show that the funds are balanced in a tug-of-war within the range, with no signals for large-scale entry or exit. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, further confirming the characteristics of short-term narrow fluctuations.
Operational suggestions: Light positions near 57.8-58.1
Defense: 58.6
Target: 57.5, 57.3#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
The geopolitical benefits of the U.S. seizing and sanctioning oil tankers only provided temporary support for oil prices and failed to break the core fundamentals of a loose supply and demand for crude oil. Doubts about the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts and the slow recovery of global crude oil demand continue to suppress oil prices, leading to a fleeting effect of geopolitical boosts, with oil prices trapped in a turbulent mire;
The daily candlestick chart shows alternating bullish and bearish tests at the strong support level of 56. The hourly chart shows prices fluctuating in a narrow range of 56.80-58.10, with the current price at 57.47 positioned at the midpoint of the range. There is strong resistance at 58.10 above and short-term support at 56.80 below, with no clear one-way trend, and fluctuations becoming the main operational rhythm;
The hourly MACD is running weakly below the zero line; although bears dominate, the momentum is mild. Indicators show that the funds are balanced in a tug-of-war within the range, with no signals for large-scale entry or exit. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, further confirming the characteristics of short-term narrow fluctuations.
Operational suggestions: Light positions near 57.8-58.1
Defense: 58.6
Target: 57.5, 57.3#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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12.12 Crude Oil Afternoon
After the crude oil price fell to a low of 56.846, it stopped declining and rebounded. The short-term moving averages formed a golden cross and diverged upward, with the price stabilizing above the moving average support, indicating a clear bullish trend in the short term. The bearish momentum at the end of the drop weakened, and the bullish phase saw an increase in volume with a bullish candle. 57.313 transformed from resistance to support, further solidifying the bullish pattern.
Operational Suggestions
Around 57.59-57.38, target 57.86, 57.98#原油
After the crude oil price fell to a low of 56.846, it stopped declining and rebounded. The short-term moving averages formed a golden cross and diverged upward, with the price stabilizing above the moving average support, indicating a clear bullish trend in the short term. The bearish momentum at the end of the drop weakened, and the bullish phase saw an increase in volume with a bullish candle. 57.313 transformed from resistance to support, further solidifying the bullish pattern.
Operational Suggestions
Around 57.59-57.38, target 57.86, 57.98#原油
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#原油 12.12 Midday Crude Oil Insights
The diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine have suppressed the geopolitical risk premium, leading to a slight decline in the demand for hedging against crude oil risks; at the same time, the global supply-demand balance for crude oil remains loose, and doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC+ production cuts further pressure oil prices. However, the 56 level serves as a strong medium-term support, intensifying the market's debate over the strength of support at this position, with short-term cautious sentiment among investors rising;
The daily chart shows a minor fluctuation testing the previous low of 56, while the hourly chart still indicates a bearish trend, with prices falling from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846. The current price of 57.746 is in a rebound correction phase, but the moving average system still presents a bearish arrangement, and there has not been a substantial reversal of the downtrend;
The MACD on the hourly chart shows signs of a golden cross below the zero line, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and reflecting short-term rebound demand. However, the indicators have not signaled a large-scale bullish entry, and the daily MACD also entangled below the zero line indicates insufficient bearish pressure, leaving oil prices in a fluctuating state before the strong support at 56.
Operational Suggestions: Light short positions near 58.0-58.3
Stop Loss: 58.9
Target: 57.0, 57.3#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
The diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine have suppressed the geopolitical risk premium, leading to a slight decline in the demand for hedging against crude oil risks; at the same time, the global supply-demand balance for crude oil remains loose, and doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC+ production cuts further pressure oil prices. However, the 56 level serves as a strong medium-term support, intensifying the market's debate over the strength of support at this position, with short-term cautious sentiment among investors rising;
The daily chart shows a minor fluctuation testing the previous low of 56, while the hourly chart still indicates a bearish trend, with prices falling from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846. The current price of 57.746 is in a rebound correction phase, but the moving average system still presents a bearish arrangement, and there has not been a substantial reversal of the downtrend;
The MACD on the hourly chart shows signs of a golden cross below the zero line, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and reflecting short-term rebound demand. However, the indicators have not signaled a large-scale bullish entry, and the daily MACD also entangled below the zero line indicates insufficient bearish pressure, leaving oil prices in a fluctuating state before the strong support at 56.
Operational Suggestions: Light short positions near 58.0-58.3
Stop Loss: 58.9
Target: 57.0, 57.3#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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The crude oil signal has once again been validated by the market, with direction and rhythm remaining consistent. Continue to follow the trend, execute according to the signals, do not chase or rush, and proceed steadily. #原油
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12.12 Crude Oil Morning
Crude oil surged to a high of 58.859 before quickly retreating, dipping to a low of 56.846 and then weakly rebounding, currently oscillating around 57.864. The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with previous support levels completing a top-bottom conversion forming pressure, clearly indicating a bearish dominant pattern.
Recommendation to short around 58-58.2, target 57.6, 57.3#原油
Crude oil surged to a high of 58.859 before quickly retreating, dipping to a low of 56.846 and then weakly rebounding, currently oscillating around 57.864. The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with previous support levels completing a top-bottom conversion forming pressure, clearly indicating a bearish dominant pattern.
Recommendation to short around 58-58.2, target 57.6, 57.3#原油
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#原油 12.12 Morning Oil Strategy
The global crude oil supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and the effectiveness of OPEC+ production cuts is in doubt, combined with a slowdown in global economic recovery suppressing crude oil demand expectations. The overall fundamentals lean towards bearish, but the 56 line acts as a strong mid-term support. There is a contest regarding the support strength at this position, and short-term capital sentiment is turning cautious;
The daily level shows minor fluctuations and tests the low of 56. The 1-hour chart still trends bearish, with prices dropping from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846. The current price of 57.855 is in the rebound correction stage, but the moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, and the downtrend has not fundamentally reversed;
The MACD on the 1-hour chart is below the zero axis, with a golden cross opening upwards, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, suggesting a short-term rebound demand. However, the moving average system still exerts pressure on prices, and there are no large-scale bullish entry signals from the indicators; the rebound may be a phase correction rather than a trend reversal.
Trading advice: Light short near 58.0-58.5
Stop loss: 58.8
Target: 57.0, 56.5#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
The global crude oil supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and the effectiveness of OPEC+ production cuts is in doubt, combined with a slowdown in global economic recovery suppressing crude oil demand expectations. The overall fundamentals lean towards bearish, but the 56 line acts as a strong mid-term support. There is a contest regarding the support strength at this position, and short-term capital sentiment is turning cautious;
The daily level shows minor fluctuations and tests the low of 56. The 1-hour chart still trends bearish, with prices dropping from a high of 58.859 to a low of 56.846. The current price of 57.855 is in the rebound correction stage, but the moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, and the downtrend has not fundamentally reversed;
The MACD on the 1-hour chart is below the zero axis, with a golden cross opening upwards, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, suggesting a short-term rebound demand. However, the moving average system still exerts pressure on prices, and there are no large-scale bullish entry signals from the indicators; the rebound may be a phase correction rather than a trend reversal.
Trading advice: Light short near 58.0-58.5
Stop loss: 58.8
Target: 57.0, 56.5#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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12.12 Crude Oil Evening
The daily trend of crude oil once broke below the previous support level, but the downward momentum has clearly weakened. The price shows signs of stabilization at a low level, and the short-term moving averages are beginning to flatten out after a downward trend, indicating a potential golden cross formation, suggesting a rebound repair may be expected in the short term.
On the hourly level, although it broke the narrow oscillation range after the European session, it quickly recovered near the bottom of the range, and the bearish momentum did not continue to expand. The K-line has begun to stabilize above the short-term moving averages, and a “breakdown not extending” reversal signal has appeared on the hourly chart, indicating a shift in the short-term trend from weak oscillation to strong oscillation.
Overall, after experiencing consecutive pullbacks, the risk of crude oil has clearly been released. There are signs of stabilization and reversal in the short term. If it can break through the intraday resistance level tonight, it will further open up rebound space. In the short term, a low long position strategy can be considered as the main approach.
Operation Suggestions
57.25-57.18 nearby, target at 57.6, 57.9#原油
The daily trend of crude oil once broke below the previous support level, but the downward momentum has clearly weakened. The price shows signs of stabilization at a low level, and the short-term moving averages are beginning to flatten out after a downward trend, indicating a potential golden cross formation, suggesting a rebound repair may be expected in the short term.
On the hourly level, although it broke the narrow oscillation range after the European session, it quickly recovered near the bottom of the range, and the bearish momentum did not continue to expand. The K-line has begun to stabilize above the short-term moving averages, and a “breakdown not extending” reversal signal has appeared on the hourly chart, indicating a shift in the short-term trend from weak oscillation to strong oscillation.
Overall, after experiencing consecutive pullbacks, the risk of crude oil has clearly been released. There are signs of stabilization and reversal in the short term. If it can break through the intraday resistance level tonight, it will further open up rebound space. In the short term, a low long position strategy can be considered as the main approach.
Operation Suggestions
57.25-57.18 nearby, target at 57.6, 57.9#原油
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#原油 Evening crude oil strategy on December 12
The progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy suppresses the geopolitical risk premium, becoming the core reason for the recent decline in oil prices. Although the low of 56.846 triggered technical bottom-fishing funds to enter, the global crude oil supply and demand remain loose, and the OPEC+ production cuts have not met expectations, which continues to weigh on the fundamentals and limits the rebound height. Funds remain cautious about long positions in crude oil;
The minor oscillation on the daily chart has not changed, with the 1-hour chart showing a weak rebound from the low of 56.846. After breaking through the short-term moving average, it encountered resistance and fell back at the 58.00 level. The current price of 57.322 has returned to the lower boundary of the oscillation range, and the suppression of the previous downtrend remains evident, with no unilateral trend in the short term, focusing on range consolidation;
The indicators on the 1-hour chart show that there is short-term fund support at the low of 56.846, but selling signals appear near 58.00. The MACD quickly shrinks the red bars after a golden cross below the zero axis, and although the short-term moving average is above the level, it is turning down, indicating insufficient rebound momentum, and the bearish selling pressure still exists.
Light short position near 57.8-58.0
Defense: 58.5
Target: 57.5, 57.0#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
The progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy suppresses the geopolitical risk premium, becoming the core reason for the recent decline in oil prices. Although the low of 56.846 triggered technical bottom-fishing funds to enter, the global crude oil supply and demand remain loose, and the OPEC+ production cuts have not met expectations, which continues to weigh on the fundamentals and limits the rebound height. Funds remain cautious about long positions in crude oil;
The minor oscillation on the daily chart has not changed, with the 1-hour chart showing a weak rebound from the low of 56.846. After breaking through the short-term moving average, it encountered resistance and fell back at the 58.00 level. The current price of 57.322 has returned to the lower boundary of the oscillation range, and the suppression of the previous downtrend remains evident, with no unilateral trend in the short term, focusing on range consolidation;
The indicators on the 1-hour chart show that there is short-term fund support at the low of 56.846, but selling signals appear near 58.00. The MACD quickly shrinks the red bars after a golden cross below the zero axis, and although the short-term moving average is above the level, it is turning down, indicating insufficient rebound momentum, and the bearish selling pressure still exists.
Light short position near 57.8-58.0
Defense: 58.5
Target: 57.5, 57.0#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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12.11 Crude Oil Afternoon Trend
After the crude oil price fell to the low level of 57.982, it has stopped declining and rebounded, currently quoted at 58.019. Initial bullish signals for a medium-term bottoming out are beginning to appear.
From a technical perspective, 57.982 has formed strong support. After the price rebound, the short-term moving averages have shifted from a decline to a flat trend and signs of a golden cross have emerged. The strength of bullish candlesticks within the low volatility range is increasing, and the previous downward momentum is gradually weakening, indicating a trend shift from weak to strong.
Operational Suggestions
Around 57.8-57.6, target 58.5-58.7#原油
After the crude oil price fell to the low level of 57.982, it has stopped declining and rebounded, currently quoted at 58.019. Initial bullish signals for a medium-term bottoming out are beginning to appear.
From a technical perspective, 57.982 has formed strong support. After the price rebound, the short-term moving averages have shifted from a decline to a flat trend and signs of a golden cross have emerged. The strength of bullish candlesticks within the low volatility range is increasing, and the previous downward momentum is gradually weakening, indicating a trend shift from weak to strong.
Operational Suggestions
Around 57.8-57.6, target 58.5-58.7#原油
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#原油 Crude oil trading welcomes good news again! At noon, we provided a light position strategy near 58.0-58.3, and after the market surged to 57.95, it started to decline, with the price dropping to 57.46. The downward trend initiated from the high point of 57.95 closely followed our prediction! #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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#原油 12.11 Afternoon Crude Oil Strategy
Crude oil is in a secondary oscillation pattern on the daily chart, testing the key low around 56, but the bears lack the sustained downward momentum. The market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears is intensifying, primarily focusing on oscillating to find a bottom in the short term, with no clear directional bias at present;
On the hourly chart, the price has been continuously retreating from the high of 59.069, with the current price of 57.814 approaching the previous low of 57.536. During the decline, the bearish candlestick body is gradually narrowing, and after probing below 57.536, there is a quick rebound, indicating a weakening of bearish selling pressure, with signs of short-term stabilization;
The daily MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bearish momentum exhausted; the hourly MACD is showing initial signs of bottom divergence, and although the rebound strength after the price retest is weak, there is no sustained momentum for a breakout downwards, with significant oscillation characteristics.
Operation Suggestion: Long position on support retest, light long near 57.50-57.70
Stop-loss: 57.20
Target: 58.20, 58.50#美联储降息 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
Crude oil is in a secondary oscillation pattern on the daily chart, testing the key low around 56, but the bears lack the sustained downward momentum. The market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears is intensifying, primarily focusing on oscillating to find a bottom in the short term, with no clear directional bias at present;
On the hourly chart, the price has been continuously retreating from the high of 59.069, with the current price of 57.814 approaching the previous low of 57.536. During the decline, the bearish candlestick body is gradually narrowing, and after probing below 57.536, there is a quick rebound, indicating a weakening of bearish selling pressure, with signs of short-term stabilization;
The daily MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bearish momentum exhausted; the hourly MACD is showing initial signs of bottom divergence, and although the rebound strength after the price retest is weak, there is no sustained momentum for a breakout downwards, with significant oscillation characteristics.
Operation Suggestion: Long position on support retest, light long near 57.50-57.70
Stop-loss: 57.20
Target: 58.20, 58.50#美联储降息 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
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12.11 Domestic WTI Oil Analysis 💙
#原油
News:
The United States has seized Venezuelan oil tankers, and Ukraine has attacked Russian oil tankers and pipelines, raising market concerns about disruptions in oil supply; at the same time, OPEC+ has made it clear that production increases will be halted in the first quarter of 2026, combined with a reduction of 3.24 million barrels per day that is still being implemented, there are expectations of a contraction on the supply side in the medium to long term, providing bottom support for oil prices.
Technical Analysis:
From the 1-hour cycle observation, WTI crude oil has dipped to 58.172 during the day, approaching the previous key support level of 58, with sufficient release of short-term downward momentum, indicating a demand for a technical rebound. The intraday high of 58.743 is an important resistance level in the recent period, and a breakthrough is expected to open up upside potential.
Operational Suggestions:
Large original view near 58.0-57.9, North ⬆️
Target 🎯: near 58.4-58.7, if broken, look at 58.9.
The content is practical; keep a close eye on the levels and don't hesitate. For friends who are unsure, quickly pay attention and feel free to ask Sister Fei #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
#原油
News:
The United States has seized Venezuelan oil tankers, and Ukraine has attacked Russian oil tankers and pipelines, raising market concerns about disruptions in oil supply; at the same time, OPEC+ has made it clear that production increases will be halted in the first quarter of 2026, combined with a reduction of 3.24 million barrels per day that is still being implemented, there are expectations of a contraction on the supply side in the medium to long term, providing bottom support for oil prices.
Technical Analysis:
From the 1-hour cycle observation, WTI crude oil has dipped to 58.172 during the day, approaching the previous key support level of 58, with sufficient release of short-term downward momentum, indicating a demand for a technical rebound. The intraday high of 58.743 is an important resistance level in the recent period, and a breakthrough is expected to open up upside potential.
Operational Suggestions:
Large original view near 58.0-57.9, North ⬆️
Target 🎯: near 58.4-58.7, if broken, look at 58.9.
The content is practical; keep a close eye on the levels and don't hesitate. For friends who are unsure, quickly pay attention and feel free to ask Sister Fei #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
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Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis
From the market trend perspective, crude oil is showing a short-term pattern of rising and then falling under pressure: the price first rose to a high point of 58.739, but failed to maintain the upward trend, instead fluctuating downwards, currently falling back to around 58.639. The short-term moving average system has formed a downward turning shape, and short-selling pressure is beginning to show at high levels.
From the analysis of key points, the lower level of 58.587 serves as the support of the previous drop, and it is also the support resonance point of the range 58.564-58.587. If this position is effectively broken, crude oil may further test the 58.50 integer level. The upper level of 58.739 becomes an immediate resistance point. If it can regain this position, it may alleviate the short-term pressure pattern and is expected to attempt to test the 58.80 range again.
From a technical cycle perspective, the hourly chart shows that the price has broken below the short-term moving average support, and the MACD momentum bar is also showing signs of leaning towards the bearish side. The short-term weak fluctuation pattern has not changed yet. In terms of operation, caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback after the rise, and it is advisable to wait for clearer direction before making more prudent layouts.
In terms of operation strategy, the focus is on buying on dips, with targets from 58.30-58.16 to 58.8-59.2#原油 .
From the market trend perspective, crude oil is showing a short-term pattern of rising and then falling under pressure: the price first rose to a high point of 58.739, but failed to maintain the upward trend, instead fluctuating downwards, currently falling back to around 58.639. The short-term moving average system has formed a downward turning shape, and short-selling pressure is beginning to show at high levels.
From the analysis of key points, the lower level of 58.587 serves as the support of the previous drop, and it is also the support resonance point of the range 58.564-58.587. If this position is effectively broken, crude oil may further test the 58.50 integer level. The upper level of 58.739 becomes an immediate resistance point. If it can regain this position, it may alleviate the short-term pressure pattern and is expected to attempt to test the 58.80 range again.
From a technical cycle perspective, the hourly chart shows that the price has broken below the short-term moving average support, and the MACD momentum bar is also showing signs of leaning towards the bearish side. The short-term weak fluctuation pattern has not changed yet. In terms of operation, caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback after the rise, and it is advisable to wait for clearer direction before making more prudent layouts.
In terms of operation strategy, the focus is on buying on dips, with targets from 58.30-58.16 to 58.8-59.2#原油 .
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#原油 Early oil strategy on November 12
Current oil prices are in a phase of supply pressure + continued short-term decline:
Iraqi oil resumption directly presses oil prices down to $58.50, the geopolitical uncertainty and the limited support effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations lead to a dominant short-term supply shock;
API inventory data is key to short-term fluctuations, and the current market is bearish;
The daily chart is in a minor oscillation, testing the support at $56, the MACD below the zero line shows that the bearish strength is weak but the trend has not changed;
The 1-hour cycle is continuously pressured by the moving averages, and the short-term downward rhythm is clear;
The moving average system on the 1-hour chart suppresses prices, with bearish momentum dominating below the MACD zero line, and the early session's weak oscillation at low levels conforms to the characteristics of continued downward alternation.
Operational suggestion: short when rebounding meets pressure, light position shorts near 58.8-58.9
Defense: 59.1
Target: 58.3, 58.1
#加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH
Current oil prices are in a phase of supply pressure + continued short-term decline:
Iraqi oil resumption directly presses oil prices down to $58.50, the geopolitical uncertainty and the limited support effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations lead to a dominant short-term supply shock;
API inventory data is key to short-term fluctuations, and the current market is bearish;
The daily chart is in a minor oscillation, testing the support at $56, the MACD below the zero line shows that the bearish strength is weak but the trend has not changed;
The 1-hour cycle is continuously pressured by the moving averages, and the short-term downward rhythm is clear;
The moving average system on the 1-hour chart suppresses prices, with bearish momentum dominating below the MACD zero line, and the early session's weak oscillation at low levels conforms to the characteristics of continued downward alternation.
Operational suggestion: short when rebounding meets pressure, light position shorts near 58.8-58.9
Defense: 59.1
Target: 58.3, 58.1
#加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH
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#原油 12.11 Evening Crude Oil Strategy
The daily chart tests the key low point at 56, and the hourly chart has rebounded quickly from the high point of 58.967 to 57.346, with the current price at 57.608 in a stage of oversold rebound, but it has not broken through the short-term resistance level, and the overall pattern of oscillating downward has not changed;
The daily MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bearish momentum weakening and lacking sustained downward pressure; after the hourly MACD forms a bottom divergence, it golden crosses upward, providing technical support for the short-term rebound, but the rebound volume has not effectively expanded;
When the price drops to 57.346, there is a signal of bottom-fishing funds entering, driving the short-term rebound, but during the rebound, the participation of bullish funds is limited, making it difficult to form a sustained one-sided upward trend.
Operation suggestion: Long on a pullback to support, light position around 57.20-57.50
Defense: 57.00
Target: 58.00, 58.30#美联储降息 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
The daily chart tests the key low point at 56, and the hourly chart has rebounded quickly from the high point of 58.967 to 57.346, with the current price at 57.608 in a stage of oversold rebound, but it has not broken through the short-term resistance level, and the overall pattern of oscillating downward has not changed;
The daily MACD is intertwined below the zero axis, with bearish momentum weakening and lacking sustained downward pressure; after the hourly MACD forms a bottom divergence, it golden crosses upward, providing technical support for the short-term rebound, but the rebound volume has not effectively expanded;
When the price drops to 57.346, there is a signal of bottom-fishing funds entering, driving the short-term rebound, but during the rebound, the participation of bullish funds is limited, making it difficult to form a sustained one-sided upward trend.
Operation suggestion: Long on a pullback to support, light position around 57.20-57.50
Defense: 57.00
Target: 58.00, 58.30#美联储降息 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
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#原油 Evening crude oil thoughts on 12.10
Current crude oil is in a weak phase of "supply pressure + oscillation testing support":
Iraqi crude oil resumption directly suppresses oil prices to fall back to $58.50. Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts provide some support, but short-term supply shocks dominate the trend;
API inventory data is a key variable for short-term fluctuations, and the current market is cautious;
The daily chart is in a secondary oscillation, with alternating K-line patterns and prices testing the support at $56. The MACD shows a weak bearish momentum below the zero axis, but the trend remains unchanged;
The one-hour cycle is under pressure from moving averages and is moving lower, indicating a clear short-term downward rhythm;
The moving average system on the one-hour chart continues to suppress prices, with the MACD operating below the zero axis, showing that bearish momentum is dominant. The early session's low-level weak oscillation aligns with the characteristics of continued downward movement alternating between primary and secondary trends.
Operational suggestion: Short on rebounds near 58.6-58.7 with light positions
Defense: 58.9
Target: 58.2, 58.0#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
Current crude oil is in a weak phase of "supply pressure + oscillation testing support":
Iraqi crude oil resumption directly suppresses oil prices to fall back to $58.50. Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts provide some support, but short-term supply shocks dominate the trend;
API inventory data is a key variable for short-term fluctuations, and the current market is cautious;
The daily chart is in a secondary oscillation, with alternating K-line patterns and prices testing the support at $56. The MACD shows a weak bearish momentum below the zero axis, but the trend remains unchanged;
The one-hour cycle is under pressure from moving averages and is moving lower, indicating a clear short-term downward rhythm;
The moving average system on the one-hour chart continues to suppress prices, with the MACD operating below the zero axis, showing that bearish momentum is dominant. The early session's low-level weak oscillation aligns with the characteristics of continued downward movement alternating between primary and secondary trends.
Operational suggestion: Short on rebounds near 58.6-58.7 with light positions
Defense: 58.9
Target: 58.2, 58.0#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
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Wednesday, 12.10, Crude Oil Afternoon
The short-term price action of crude oil has shown a deep decline followed by a rebound, forming a technical pattern of a double bottom stabilizing. The bearish downward momentum has completely exhausted, and bullish reversal signals have fully emerged. Combining the candlestick structure, moving average system, and key support and resistance, we will break down the precise logic for a bullish layout.
From the short-term candlestick chart, the crude oil price first surged to the stage high of 58.319 before quickly retreating. When it dipped to the low of 58.211, it formed a 'golden needle probing bottom' pattern, and this low resonated with previous support, forming a short-term double bottom structure, confirming the strong buying strength below. In terms of the moving average system, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned from a previous dead cross to a golden cross and are now turning upwards. Although the 20-day moving average remains in a downward trend, its slope has significantly narrowed, gradually weakening its suppressive effect on prices. The current moving average convergence around the level of 58.238 has become a strong short-term support. In terms of volume, during the rebound phase, the bullish candlestick bodies have been accompanied by sustained increasing volume, while the correction process has mainly involved shrinking small bearish candlesticks, reflecting a positive characteristic of volume-price coordination that shows market bullish funds are beginning to actively enter the market, while bearish selling pressure has entered a stage of exhaustion after consecutive declines. In addition, after the price broke through the critical level of 58.20, it retraced without breaking, completing the technical actions of 'breakthrough-retrace-confirmation', further solidifying the foundation for a short-term bullish trend. #原油
Operation Suggestion
Around 58.20-58.15, target at 58.5, 59
The short-term price action of crude oil has shown a deep decline followed by a rebound, forming a technical pattern of a double bottom stabilizing. The bearish downward momentum has completely exhausted, and bullish reversal signals have fully emerged. Combining the candlestick structure, moving average system, and key support and resistance, we will break down the precise logic for a bullish layout.
From the short-term candlestick chart, the crude oil price first surged to the stage high of 58.319 before quickly retreating. When it dipped to the low of 58.211, it formed a 'golden needle probing bottom' pattern, and this low resonated with previous support, forming a short-term double bottom structure, confirming the strong buying strength below. In terms of the moving average system, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned from a previous dead cross to a golden cross and are now turning upwards. Although the 20-day moving average remains in a downward trend, its slope has significantly narrowed, gradually weakening its suppressive effect on prices. The current moving average convergence around the level of 58.238 has become a strong short-term support. In terms of volume, during the rebound phase, the bullish candlestick bodies have been accompanied by sustained increasing volume, while the correction process has mainly involved shrinking small bearish candlesticks, reflecting a positive characteristic of volume-price coordination that shows market bullish funds are beginning to actively enter the market, while bearish selling pressure has entered a stage of exhaustion after consecutive declines. In addition, after the price broke through the critical level of 58.20, it retraced without breaking, completing the technical actions of 'breakthrough-retrace-confirmation', further solidifying the foundation for a short-term bullish trend. #原油
Operation Suggestion
Around 58.20-58.15, target at 58.5, 59
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Wednesday, October 12, Morning Crude Oil
The current crude oil market lacks a trending movement, with prices continuing to fluctuate narrowly around the moving average on the daily chart, showing significant convergence characteristics. The market lacks a clear fundamental driving force, and the buying and selling forces are temporarily in a balanced state.
Trading Suggestions
Short near 59, with a stop loss at 59.8, target at 57.6, and further looking below 57. #原油
The current crude oil market lacks a trending movement, with prices continuing to fluctuate narrowly around the moving average on the daily chart, showing significant convergence characteristics. The market lacks a clear fundamental driving force, and the buying and selling forces are temporarily in a balanced state.
Trading Suggestions
Short near 59, with a stop loss at 59.8, target at 57.6, and further looking below 57. #原油
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#原油 12.10 Morning Oil Strategy
Current oil is in the "strong resistance and weak fluctuation phase after the European session breakout":
Trend dimension: After the small converging triangle broke upwards in the European session, the trend continues with strong resistance attributes. Although it has not broken out of the range, the buying strength during price pullbacks is strong, and no weak breakdown signals have appeared;
Form dimension: The short-term fluctuation range is clear, with distinct support and resistance boundaries. The pullback amplitude is controllable, and the rebound rhythm is coherent, belonging to a relatively strong pattern in consolidation;
Indicator dimension: The hourly chart price is temporarily stable above the short-term moving average. Although the moving average system has not completely diverged, it has not formed a bearish arrangement. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed, but the upper middle band has not turned downwards, conforming to the characteristics of strong resistance and fluctuation.
Operation suggestion: Buy on pullback support around 58.2-58.3 with light position
Stop loss: 57.6
Target: 58.8, 59.0
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH
Current oil is in the "strong resistance and weak fluctuation phase after the European session breakout":
Trend dimension: After the small converging triangle broke upwards in the European session, the trend continues with strong resistance attributes. Although it has not broken out of the range, the buying strength during price pullbacks is strong, and no weak breakdown signals have appeared;
Form dimension: The short-term fluctuation range is clear, with distinct support and resistance boundaries. The pullback amplitude is controllable, and the rebound rhythm is coherent, belonging to a relatively strong pattern in consolidation;
Indicator dimension: The hourly chart price is temporarily stable above the short-term moving average. Although the moving average system has not completely diverged, it has not formed a bearish arrangement. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed, but the upper middle band has not turned downwards, conforming to the characteristics of strong resistance and fluctuation.
Operation suggestion: Buy on pullback support around 58.2-58.3 with light position
Stop loss: 57.6
Target: 58.8, 59.0
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH
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