"Hawkish Rate Cut" Landmines: Only One Rate Cut Left in 2026?

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 11, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year!

This decision passed with a 9:3 vote, reflecting increasing internal disagreements on the trade-off between inflation and employment risks.

Despite the rate cut, the dot plot indicates that there may only be one rate cut space in 2026, and the Fed has simultaneously launched a monthly $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase plan to maintain liquidity.

Powell ruled out the possibility of a rate hike at the press conference, emphasizing that future policy will rely on data and pointing out that current inflationary pressures mainly stem from one-time factors such as tariffs.

For the crypto space, this "hawkish rate cut" suggests that short-term liquidity improvements may boost market sentiment, but there is limited room for medium- to long-term policy easing.

The Fed's high threshold for subsequent rate cuts could lead to increased market volatility.

Retail investors need to pay attention to the release of key economic data (such as employment and inflation) and the market expectations gap under policy disagreements, as these factors could become dominant variables in the subsequent market trends.

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