The signals from the Federal Reserve meeting are out, leaning neutral with a hint of hawkishness. Stay tuned until dawn as I help you break it down. If you want to discuss operational details, feel free to reach out at any time.
The neutral stance is very clear. A 25 basis point rate cut is completely in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve emphasizes that the economy is on a soft landing trajectory with no hard landing risks; this drop is not surprising.
The hawkish position is hidden in the dot plot.
The expectation for a rate cut in 2026 has been directly slashed to the extreme of once, with three committee members expressing dissent.
They openly expressed concerns about inflation and productivity recovery, and are hesitant to loosen policy too much. This attitude will lock in the future space for costs to continue to decline.
Last night's market reaction also confirmed this point. It did not take extreme steps but maintained a fluctuation. The market is digesting the signals without being impulsive.
Now, the rhythm shows that the market has started to press down, and in the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate around 3200. My judgment is that this is a normal pullback after the positive news.
The market always trades on expectations; once expectations are fulfilled, it’s time to shift gears.
Going long from here carries extremely high risks. It’s better to wait and see rather than force it; or consider shorting on rallies for a more stable and safer approach. Maintaining a calm mindset is key; don’t let fluctuations shake you off.
My nine years of experience in the crypto space tells me that this kind of neutral to hawkish signal often leads to a period of choppy consolidation. It's better to keep your hands steady than to operate frequently. Wait for clear stabilization signals to seize opportunities.
If you are also struggling with long or short positions, or are interested in shorting on rallies, feel free to contact me. We can gradually discuss practical insights. Remember, the crypto space is not short of opportunities; what is lacking is the determination to understand the signals. Follow this line of thought and avoid ten years of detours.
Keep an eye on: $pippin $G $WET
