Morning Share
1. To summarize Mr. Bao's speech
First, inflation has slightly increased, and the probability of interest rate cuts in January next year has decreased.
Second, the unemployment rate is rising, which theoretically should lead to interest rate cuts; for the Federal Reserve now, it is a matter of protecting the large and the small. Usually, the Federal Reserve will first suppress inflation and give up on employment.
Third, engaging in bond repurchase is also one of the waterproof operations.
2. Last night, U.S. stocks went up. The final wave of increase has completed all expectations for interest rate cuts, which is equivalent to the last sprint (this has been analyzed in detail yesterday), including a significant pullback in U.S. stocks, directly testing this week's lowest point.
3. This week is expected to continue to decline, so logically, if it can rise, shorting would be a better strategy. In the larger cycle, Bitcoin is showing a bearish flag correction; if a second large waterfall occurs, the final support level is at 800. If this level cannot be held, it will directly drop to 700. If 800 can effectively support, there should be a significant rise by the end of December, possibly the last wave of a small bull trend.
4. Currently, Bitcoin shows no signs of stopping its decline, so lower positions should be considered for short-term long positions.
btc 880-890 long 910-920 short$
eth 3070-3100 long around 3220 short (1011 Insider hasn't closed the ETH long position and is still continuously increasing the position, currently holding 80,000 ETH)
