$BTC $ETH Federal Reserve interest rate cuts? Don't get too excited! This is the real "killing market" in the cryptocurrency world at the end of the year.

I just saw a message, that guy from Greeks.Live said the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and buying government bonds, which is good news for the market——that's not wrong, but if you really believe in the "restarting of the bull market", then you may not even know how you're going to lose by the end of the year.

On the surface, it's good news, but underneath it’s all knives. Interest rate cuts are dovish, liquidity needs to be replenished, but do you know what node we are at now? Christmas! Year-end settlement! In past years, everyone knows how liquidity in the cryptocurrency world has behaved at this time. The market has no money, no enthusiasm, where does the bull market come from? Relying on faith to pull the market up?

The real signal is hidden in the options data: over 50% of the options positions set to expire in late December have been postponed, with BTC's biggest pain point at $100,000 and ETH's biggest pain point at $3,200. What does this mean?——The market makers never intended to push the market up this month; they are waiting for you to cut your losses, waiting for you to be unable to resist and exit. IV is declining across the board, and the market is too lazy to even perform volatility; this is called "slow torture", and it’s more tormenting than a sharp drop.

You think you are bottom fishing, but in fact, you are catching flying knives. Right now, market sentiment is low, liquidity is at its worst, any small positive news can be magnified into a "reversal signal", but any small negative news can push the market down another level. This is called a "trap market", specifically targeting those retail investors who rush in blindly at good news.

Don't be fooled by the headlines; look at the data, look at the structure, look at the positions. This wave at the end of the year is not meant for you to make money, but for you to survive. The bull market is not in these last few trading days of the year; it comes after everyone has despairingly cut their losses.

In the cryptocurrency world, patience is more important than courage, and surviving is more important than getting rich quickly. Don’t be fooled by the calmness right now—underwater, there are alligators.

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