#美联储降息 Why did the interest rate cut lead to a downturn? A reverse lesson from the cryptocurrency market

A classic interpretation of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'

The market had already priced in the positive news months before the interest rate cut. When the expectation materialized, profit-taking occurred, creating selling pressure.

Concerns about recession behind the interest rate cut

This interest rate cut is a preventive measure, reflecting worries about economic slowdown. Investors see it as a risk signal and flee from high-risk assets.

The identity switch of cryptocurrency

In times of economic uncertainty, the 'high-risk nature' of crypto assets overwhelms the 'anti-inflation narrative', triggering capital withdrawal.

Uneven distribution of liquidity

The newly released liquidity primarily fills gaps in traditional finance rather than flowing into the cryptocurrency market, creating a 'liquidity siphoning effect'.

Market insights

1. A single macro event cannot simply predict the trend of the cryptocurrency market

2. The cryptocurrency market is increasingly interconnected with traditional finance, making fluctuations more complex

3. Investors need to be wary of 'overly consensus', maintaining flexibility in strategy

The downturn following the interest rate cut reveals a hallmark of a mature market: it no longer mechanically reacts to news but rather complexly digests multiple narratives. Real opportunities and risks often lie beyond the consensus expectations.