Don't focus solely on short videos after finishing lunch at noon; the current BTC market is comparable to 'immortals fighting.' It's bouncing around the 90,000 level, with both bulls and bears holding back their big moves! Many fans have privately asked me whether to take action in the afternoon, whether to buy the dip or wait and see. Don't rush; today's article is all solid content, no fluff, all based on my 12+ hours of market observation combined with unique judgments on the funding and macro aspects. Even beginners can accurately catch the rhythm after reading!
Let me clarify first: I never engage in ambiguous analysis. Today’s core viewpoint is this: the afternoon will trend slightly bullish, but don’t blindly chase highs. If you want to take action, you must hit the right price point; greed will only lead to being 'educated' by the market! Next, we'll break down four hard anchor points to understand the logic behind the market movements:
I. Four Major Core Logic Breakdown: Understand the password for market fluctuations.
1. Institutional Movements Are Mysterious: Yesterday (12.10) the spot ETF market was interesting. Overall, although it is still in a continuous net outflow trend, institutions are clearly being 'cautiously supportive' and haven't dared to enter heavily. But here's the point: BlackRock alone has net inflows of 193 million USD, and the entire market has a net inflow of 224 million, which means that BlackRock is carrying the flag by itself. What does this indicate? Institutions are not pessimistic but are waiting for the best opportunity. Their supportive attitude is clear but not aggressive, after all, no one wants to be the 'greater fool.'
2. The long-short game has lost balance; shorts should be careful of being 'killed in counterattack': Over the past month, the scale of short liquidations has soared to 3.66 billion USD, nearly 50% higher than longs! Now the price is stuck around the 90000 mark, and under these circumstances, a 'short squeeze' is most likely to occur. Simply put, once the price rebounds slightly, a large number of shorts forced to cover will actually drive the price up, so don't overlook this potential upward momentum.
3. The macro situation is somewhat 'divided', with a dual balance setting the rhythm: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was initially a positive, but the subsequent hawkish guidance led to a V-shaped rebound in the dollar index, putting significant pressure on BTC. Interestingly, however, US stocks and gold, these risk assets, are rising in sync, indicating that the appetite for risk assets has not diminished. This dual balance situation also determines that BTC is unlikely to exhibit a one-sided trend, and it is more likely to oscillate.
4. The technical support is strong enough, and key points have been validated: From the 4-hour chart, the MA20 moving average has formed strong dynamic support around 90500. The previous low of 89500 has successfully validated the strength of this support level. As long as it does not drop below this key support, there is a possibility of a weak rebound in the afternoon, which is also one of the important bases for my judgment on the bullish bias.
II. Trend Characterization: The market is oscillating but leaning towards bullish, don't expect to break 92000.
Currently, the price is hovering around 90200, exactly within the core oscillation range of 89500-91800. On one hand, institutional support provides a foundation for the rise, coupled with the potential power of short squeezing, it is highly likely that a 'narrow oscillation + weak rebound' pattern will be maintained around 4:30 PM, with very low likelihood of a one-sided decline, so everyone doesn't need to panic excessively.
But I must pour cold water on everyone: Don't expect a breakthrough of 92000 this afternoon! The upper range of 91800-92000 is a previously dense resistance area. Now that ETF inflows have slowed down, coupled with the pressure of a dollar rebound, the market simply does not have enough volume momentum to break this level. So don't be greedy and chase high; knowing when to take profits is the key.
III. Practical Guide: Precise points provided, follow along to avoid pitfalls.
Many fans are most concerned about 'when to enter and where to set stop loss and take profit.' Today, I will give you a clear answer that even beginners can execute directly:
1. Entry Timing: For those looking to enter a long position, focus on the range of 90000-90300 and just take a small position. The position should never exceed 20%! There is a key prerequisite: the hourly trading volume must increase by ≥15% to avoid false support and prevent everyone from buying at the halfway point. If the price directly drops below 89500, which is a strong support level, listen to me, directly give up entering and patiently wait for stability signals around 89000.
2. Stop Loss and Take Profit: The stop loss must be strictly set at 89200. Once it drops below, exit immediately. Don't think about holding the position, or you may be deeply trapped, especially since the support failure can easily trigger a chain decline. For take profit, it should be done in two steps: The first target is 91000, which is a small short-term resistance; at that point, you can reduce part of your position. The second target is 91800, which is the line of life and death for bulls and bears; at that point, it's advisable to clear your position directly. Don't be greedy thinking about breaking 92000; be careful of losing what you already have.
Conclusion: Follow me! I will guide you to accurately grasp the market rhythm.
Today's afternoon market analysis ends here. It's all derived from my real-time monitoring and analysis results, without any empty talk. The market changes rapidly; if any sudden situations arise in the afternoon, I will prompt everyone in the comments as soon as possible.
If you find this analysis useful, don't forget to like and follow. I will share market interpretations and practical skills every day to help everyone navigate the crypto market with fewer detours and earn more! Do you think BTC can rise to 91000 this afternoon? Follow me @链上标哥 , and don't get lost!
