The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 did not have a significant impact on the market. Compared to September, the dot plot shows a tendency for marginal easing, but there is still a gap from market expectations. The market's focus has shifted to 2026: at that time, Powell will hand over to Hasset, and the new dot plot in June will become a key variable.
Overall, Powell's remarks are relatively moderate. While he is cautious about a rate cut in January, he is relatively optimistic about inflation prospects, believing that the tariffs implemented may only have a 'one-time' impact on goods inflation. He reiterated that if inflation continues to decline, the Fed will consider more rate cuts; if the labor market weakens, the Fed will also intervene.
In the next month, data will become the dominant logic: the weaker the labor data, the higher the probability of a rate cut; the milder the inflation data, the higher the probability of a rate cut. In addition, the Supreme Court may make a ruling on tariff issues from the Trump era in January, which is also one of the recent sources of uncertainty. Overall, Powell's remarks this time are much more moderated compared to the clearly hawkish stance in December last year. He also holds an optimistic outlook for economic growth in 2026.
From the Bitcoin market data, the recent turnover rate has significantly increased, reflecting investors' speculative mindset during the critical policy window. As the meeting concludes, the turnover rate may gradually decline. Data shows that short-term traders are quite active, and some investors who entered below $90,000 recently have chosen to take profits.
The current chip structure is generally healthy, with no stability issues, and there has been no panic selling from high-level loss investors. Future market sentiment will still be data-driven: if expectations for a rate cut in January continue to heat up, market enthusiasm is expected to persist. Close attention should be paid to the economic data released in December and its impact on reshaping interest rate path expectations.
