As an experienced player who has been in the crypto space for many years, I have seen too many people rush in with the mindset of 'getting rich overnight', only to end up as fodder for the market makers. Today, I want to share some insights from my personal experiences in plain language. Note: The following content is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!
1. The essence of the market: zero-sum game and amplifier of human nature
There is no myth of 'guaranteed profits' in the crypto world, especially in the contract market, which is essentially a zero-sum game—when someone profits, someone else loses. Why do most people lose money? Because the market amplifies human weaknesses to the extreme:
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) drives chasing
Seeing Bitcoin soar, friends flaunt profit screenshots, and many people impulsively jump in, only to buy at the peak. This kind of emotion is even more crazily amplified in the social media era, where a single word from influencers or celebrities can crash the market.
Leverage is a 'sweet poison'
High leverage can double your money in an instant, but it can also bring you back to zero just as quickly. Especially in full-position mode, a 5% reverse fluctuation can lead to liquidation. Data shows that over 80% of liquidations occur in the early morning (when Asian players are asleep), during which quant trading bots frequently take action, and retail investors simply cannot withstand it.
The truth behind the dealer's 'line drawing'
The cryptocurrency market is highly controlled, with the top 2% of addresses holding the majority of the chips. Dealers often use a method called false breakouts: initially using small amounts of capital to pump the price, enticing retail investors to follow, and then reverse and dump to harvest. What you think of as technical analysis may be traps deliberately left by others.
2. My clumsy method: trend + discipline, avoiding eating the head and tail of the fish
I never aim to 'buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point', but instead focus on capturing the most stable segment in the middle of the trend. The specific approach is as follows:
Only engage in high-certainty patterns
For example, a double top/bottom breakout is the most classic reversal signal. But many people use it incorrectly—you must wait for the neckline to confirm the breakout to be valid! For instance, in a double top pattern, you must wait for the price to break below the neckline before opening a short position, rather than guessing the top in advance.
Position management is more important than technology
Total leverage should not exceed 2 times, no matter how bullish the market looks.
Do not exceed 10% of total funds for a single trade to avoid going all in.
Stop-losses must be decisive. I often use 'neckline breakout +3%' as my stop-loss point to prevent false breakouts from washing out positions.
Refuse 'all-weather combat'
The cryptocurrency market operates 24 hours, but there is very little time when there is actual movement. I spend most of my time waiting in cash, only taking action at key positions (such as weekly support/resistance levels), controlling the frequency to 1-2 times a month.
3. A survival guide for ordinary people
Invest spare money to maintain a stable mindset
Using money for meals or mortgage to trade cryptocurrencies will inevitably distort your mindset. I always play with spare money that I can afford to lose; even if I lose everything, it won't affect my life.
Beware of 'quantitative financial' scams
Many quantitative funds in the market raise capital under the banner of 'annualized 50%', but in reality, they are mostly just funding schemes. Truly professional teams would never publicly raise funds, but rely on their own capital to roll over.
Surviving long-term is what makes a winner
The cryptocurrency market has distinct bull and bear cycles; a bull market may rise 10 times, but a bear market can drop 90%. Those who survive are those who respect the market and strictly enforce stop-losses. Don't envy those flaunting their wealth; they may disappear in the next bear market.
A few sincere words at the end
There is no 'mindless money-making' strategy in the cryptocurrency market; so-called winning techniques are either bait from dealers or survivor bias. My core principles are only three: trend is king, leverage is caution, discipline is greater than luck.
If you have ever felt lost in the market, feel free to exchange ideas—just remember, others' experiences are always just references; ultimately, only your own understanding and execution can save you.
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