1. we have entered a bear market,
2. there will be no altseason, because there is no street,
3. in 2026 the great crisis
three points are logical at first glance, but each of them has a deeper meaning.
Let's go through them one by one:
⸻
1️⃣ “We have entered a bear market” — in my opinion, not yet, but we are in the prelude
What you see now (portfolio drawdown, lack of liquidity, weak sentiment) is not a bear market, but:
✔ correction after an artificial, inflated mini-altseason
✔ “market fatigue,” because BTC is too high given how weak the fundamentals of the rest of the market are
✔ capital outflow to safe zones (T-bills, cash, deposits)
The real bear market only begins when:
• BTC is down 60%+,
• alts are dropping 90–99%,
• volumes shrink to "desert" levels.
This is not happening yet.
Currently we are in:
→ advanced, painful, but still cyclical correction, not a full bear market.
⸻
2️⃣ "There won't be an altseason because there's no street" — half-truth
You're right, the street hasn't entered.
But that doesn’t rule out altseason.
Why?
🔹 Altseason does NOT start from the street.
Altseason starts from:
• funds,
• trading firms,
• capital rotation from BTC to high beta.
The street only enters at the end, when alts are already doing 3–10×.
🔹 The street is NOT entering now because:
• the profitability of deposits is high,
• people are afraid of the crisis,
• they remember 2022.
But that doesn't mean it won't come later, usually at the very top.
The real altseason always comes with a delay compared to BTC.
Sometimes even a year later.
⸻
3️⃣ "In 2026 there will be a crisis, it's already creaking" — I agree with this, but...
Yes, macro fundamentals signal:
• bust of the commercial real estate market,
• liquidity issues in the USA/EU,
• record debt,
• real unemployment is rising, but it's being masked,
• consumers are exhausted by inflation.
2026 may be the year of a major global crisis.
But...
THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET and MACRO do not move at the same pace.
In crypto, it often happens that:
➡ Year before the crash − huge pumps, euphoria, a big last breakout.
➡ Year of the crash − everything is falling, total bear market.
