#AltcoiSeason My honest, 'no sugar' thoughts for today:
1) The chances of a classic altseason in 2025 have significantly decreased
It no longer looks like a typical cycle in which:
• BTC is rising → makes ATH → sideways → capital is flowing into alts → alts are doing 5–20x.
In 2025 this phase should be present, but the market... completely failed to deliver it.
Even strong projects in 2024/2025 have not gained momentum. Most alts are:
• –60% to –90% from peaks,
• without volumes,
• with dried-up sentiment.
This does not look like a 'delayed altseason', but rather like a full risk-off.
2) The market looks like a mini-bear, but not like a 4-year crypto winter
This is not 2018 or 2022.
Differences:
• BTC is holding relatively strong given the lack of capital in alts.
• There is no dominant factor like the collapse of FTX, Terra, or the China ban.
• Funds still have huge positions in early projects.
This looks more like:
an extended, tiring rotation cycle without capital in alts, not a full "4 years of waiting."
3) In 2026 there may be a second phase of a bull market – but not for all alts
My current cycle theory:
• Q4 2025 – Q1/Q2 2026: return of liquidity, market rebuilding, new narratives (AI + gaming + RWA).
• The second wave of alts – but not as broad as previous cycles.
This will be a selective alt season, meaning:
• Top 30–50 projects will launch,
• Shitcoins + old alts with large supply… no longer.
It will not be a broad alt season where "everyone does 10x," but rather selected 5–15 projects.
4) your drops –60% in the portfolio is exactly what we saw at the end of corrections
This does not look like the beginning of a 4-year bear market.
In a 4-year bear market, alts would be:
• –95% to –99% (like 2019),
• daily volumes of several million $
• BTC would drop by 50%.
Now this is not the case.
5) My final opinion
2025 is unlikely to provide a classic alt season.
Ale 2026 has a good chance of a second wave in the market, provided that:
• BTC will enter a longer sideways movement with gradual growth,
• interest rates will actually start to decline,
• Alt ETFs will start (ETH spot ETF already shows that capital is flowing in).
That is:
• Not a 4-year bear market,
• it will only be a tiring extension of the cycle, where the real impulse for alts may only come in 2026.
which projects with the greatest chance of several x 🔥🔥🔥 have the chance to survive until this wave👇
