After the rate cut in December, how will the crypto market proceed?

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but what truly affects crypto is not the rate cut itself, but the market's six major expectations for the future:

1. Is this the beginning of a rate cut cycle, or a one-time action?

If the cycle opens → stronger trends; symbolic rate cut → high probability of fluctuations.

2. How much room is there for rate cuts in 2026?

As long as interest rate futures begin to price in more rate cuts, risk assets will be more favorable.

3. The direction of real interest rates (10Y TIPS)

The trend of BTC is highly negatively correlated with real interest rates. If real interest rates decline → Crypto is stronger in the medium term.

4. Fiscal liquidity: Is the TGA declining?

A decline in TGA = the government putting money back into the market, which can drive trends more than a 25 basis point cut.

5. Is the ETF capital flow sustainable?

Rate cuts are just the background; continuous net inflow into ETFs is the core driving force of the market.

6. Is there a new narrative that can attract capital?

Whether capital can healthily diffuse from BTC → ETH → AI/L2/RWA and other sectors determines the performance of altcoins and the height of the bull market.

In summary:

Rate cuts are not the end but the beginning of a new round of expectations.

The interest rate path, liquidity, institutional capital, and sector rotation over the next 12 months will be key to determining the direction of crypto.