21:30 Ultimate Judgment! A single number determines rise and fall: Will the global market bleed tonight or celebrate again?
After the Federal Reserve clearly shifted to a 'data-dependent' mode, the release of each key economic data point could trigger a re-pricing of the market's interest rate path, resulting in significant volatility. Tonight (data release day) at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week will be the first important test of this new phase.
Background Changes: The market's reaction the previous trading day to the interest rate cut decision, which was overly optimistic, proves that simple policy changes have been fully anticipated. Future price momentum will primarily stem from the gap between actual economic conditions and market expectations.
Importance of the Data: This data is one of the most timely high-frequency indicators of labor market conditions. Its results will directly validate or refute the Federal Reserve's judgment that 'the job market may cool', thereby affecting expectations for its subsequent policy pace.
If the released data is significantly lower than expected (e.g., ≤200,000): It indicates that the labor market remains strong, which may weaken market bets on a rapid interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and put pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
If the released data is significantly higher than expected (e.g., ≥240,000): It will reinforce the narrative of economic slowdown and policy shift, potentially boosting risk assets in the short term.
In the current environment, the quality of the data itself is not the only criterion; rather, the 'deviation value' from market expectations is the core driver of market movements. Given that market sentiment has turned cautious after the previous optimistic realization, even if weak data triggers a rebound, its sustainability and intensity may also be limited. It is suggested to view this data as a window to observe marginal changes in market sentiment and liquidity, and to assess short-term risk preferences accordingly.
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