The warning has come true: Interest rate cuts have become a signal for 'harvesting', and Bitcoin has dropped back below 90000 overnight!
This market decline is a typical manifestation of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'. The favorable news of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has been digested in advance, and the internal policy differences and uncertainty regarding future rate cuts released during the meeting have jointly triggered profit-taking.
Price trend: After the announcement, Bitcoin briefly surged to about 94500 USD, then continued to decline, currently falling below the key integer level of 90000 USD. Ethereum has also weakened, retreating from a recent high near 3450 USD to below 3200 USD.
Policy background: The Federal Reserve's decision was passed with 9 votes in favor and 3 votes against, showing significant internal disagreement on inflation risks and economic outlook. More crucially, officials hinted that the likelihood of further rate cuts in the near term (such as the next meeting) is low, which directly reversed the market's short-term easing expectations.
Currently, attention should be paid to the following key technical areas, which will affect the magnitude of short-term rebounds or consolidations:
Bitcoin: The primary support below is in the 90000 to 89000 USD range; recent resistance above is near 91700 USD and 92500 USD.
Ethereum: Support below is focused on 3180 USD and 3100 USD; resistance above is in the 3250 USD and 3300 USD range.
Market focus has shifted to economic data to seek new policy clues. The U.S. initial jobless claims data released tonight is the first key test.
If the data is weaker than expected, it may briefly boost market expectations for easing, facilitating a technical rebound.
However, given that the main favorable news has been realized, the sustainability and space for any rebound may be limited. The overall market may enter a phase of volatility and seek a new balance, and caution is needed regarding the risk of further fluctuations triggered by subsequent data.
The implementation of the interest rate cut means that a core macro narrative has temporarily come to a close. Before new and strong driving factors emerge, the market is expected to primarily oscillate in a high-volatility range. Strategically, it is recommended to prioritize attention to the reactions at the above key technical levels and closely monitor the upcoming economic data for its guidance on market sentiment.
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