The price of Pi Coin remained stable in November, as the value of most major tokens fell. However, the situation changed this week. The token has dropped nearly 10% in the last seven days and over 4% in the last 24 hours. The decline below a critical level confirmed a clear pattern breakout on the daily chart, which many traders associate with the 'doomsday' risk – the decline could continue towards a new all-time low if selling persists.
The key question now is whether the chart can recover this time.
The breakout of the pattern opens the way to a new low reading.
Pi Coin fell below the neckline near $0.219, forming a classic head and shoulders pattern, which suggests a potential reversal of the downtrend.
The standard price projection is based on the difference between the neckline and the head. This suggests a possible decline of about 22.8%, placing Pi Coin near $0.169.
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This situation carries risk, as Pi Coin's current all-time low price is near $0.172 according to CoinGecko, so a move towards $0.169 would signify a new low. Still, two metrics may help Pi avoid the risk.
Sellers are strong, but buyers are still showing signs of life.
The support from larger buyers is still visible. A good sign can be found in cash flows. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tracks how much big money is coming in and out, and there is a small deviation visible. During the period between December 9th and 11th, the price made a lower low, but the CMF rose. This usually indicates that some buyers are buying dips.
CMF has also risen above its short-term downtrend, but has not yet crossed the zero line. At the zero line, cash flow shifts from net selling to net buying. Pi Coin needs this change to confirm its strength.
The sentiment indicator conveys the same message. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures buying pressure and selling pressure and forms its own deviation. Between November 4th and December 10th, the price of PI made a higher low but the RSI fell — a hidden bullish divergence. This may mean that selling pressure is weakening.
These early signals do not change the decline, but indicate that sellers do not have complete control.
Key price levels of Pi Coin determine its fate.
The price of Pi Coin is currently around $0.208. The significant level is $0.192. A drop below this would open the way towards $0.169 — the target of the chart pattern — and signify a new low in the chart.
For recovery, Pi Coin should get back to $0.233. This level is above the right shoulder and would indicate early improvement. The entire trend reversal requires the price to rise above $0.284, which is the area above the head of the formation.
Pi Coin is currently caught between pressure and early support signals. A breakthrough indicates a new low, but deviations suggest that buyers are still active. The next development depends on whether the price holds the support level of $0.192 or gives way to the downtrend.