Last night, Powell's 'dovish' tone was full-blown, with rate cuts and balance sheet expansion all arranged, yet the market experienced a shocking plunge — Bitcoin surged and then fell, while Ethereum directly plummeted from $3447!
The good news has landed, and now the knife is out of the sheath. Tonight at 21:30, the initial unemployment claims data will be the first wave of judgment in the Federal Reserve's 'data-dependent' era!
Why can this week's 'small data' determine the life and death of the crypto circle tonight?
Core insights into the fundamental fractures of global competition — the job market! Powell's dovish stance relies entirely on the 'downside risk to employment,' and the number of initial unemployment claims is the most sensitive 'thermometer' for employment, directly determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the future.
Tonight's expectation is 220,000 people: below expectation = employment remains strong, interest rate cut threshold skyrockets, selling pressure returns; above expectation = employment cooling solidifies, interest rate cut expectations soar, the cryptocurrency market may see a violent pullback!
Powell's favorable news has all been released, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike clouds are approaching, and global liquidity is tightening. In this data guessing game, any pullback is the last opportunity for short sellers to add positions and for long buyers to escape the peak!
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