Help! This round of predictions by Banmuxia has directly drawn a big pie for retail investors, soaring to 112,500 in a month. Just hearing this increase makes one want to leverage overnight! But we old hands in the crypto circle understand that what analysts mean by 'expected to rise' = 'might rise or might fall', and 'twists and turns' = 'it’s not over until you get washed out'.
Let’s first talk about that 'guiding wedge'. It sounds quite grand, but in reality, it means: the price is rising, but the more it rises, the less momentum it has, like it's about to run out of breath. Normally, this kind of pattern is just a trap for the bulls, with a 70% probability of a drop. But Banmuxia says this is 'guidance'—so all that oscillation was just to build up for a big move? Don’t kid yourself, terms like 'wedge' and 'triangle' in the crypto circle are essentially analysts' 'disclaimers': if it rises, I’m accurate in my prediction; if it falls, the pattern has failed, either way, there’s a rationale.
Looking again at the support level of 89,000 - 90,000, calling it a lifeline is better described as the 'retail investor harvesting line.' Recently, BTC has been bouncing around this area, dropping and then rebounding, like a cat catching a mouse. You think 89,500 is the iron bottom, heavily investing, only to see it break through instantly, scaring you into cutting losses, and once you sell, it slowly rises back up again. This operation makes institutions say 'professional,' while retail investors just want to curse.
The most absolute is still the phrase 'twisted process,' which is simply the universal rhetoric of crypto analysts! Last time a certain big V said 'Bitcoin will definitely break 120,000 by the end of the year,' but it fell from 100,000 to 80,000, and retail investors lost their shirts, while they casually said, 'this is just the twisted process,' completely washing their hands of it. Now Banmu Summer comes back with the same routine, the meaning is clear: Want to wait for 110,000? Fine, first endure the crash, endure the fluctuations, endure the back-and-forth cuts, and those who can survive until the end can have the soup.
What’s the market situation now? The Federal Reserve is still hawkish, and Japan's interest rate hike is just around the corner. Once liquidity tightens, any support levels or wedges will have to stand aside. Banmu Summer’s predicted rise isn’t impossible, but retail investors mustn’t take it seriously. If you treat 'promising' as 'certain,' heavily investing all in, the final probability is likely to be cut to pieces in the 'twisted process.'
For those really wanting to participate, remember: small positions for trial and error, if it drops below 89,000, run directly, don’t fight the market to the death; if you truly want to see a breakout, wait until it stabilizes above the wedge with volume before saying anything, don’t be fooled by false breakouts. In the crypto world, listening to analysts' predictions is fine, but if you truly believe them, you’ll lose as in the 'twisted process,' it’s always the retail investors who believe in 'inevitable rises' that get cut.
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