This chart is called 'Percentage of Excess Liquidity in Bank Deposits', which actually serves as a barometer for observing the tightness of market liquidity. The Federal Reserve is currently injecting $40 billion into the market, which in simple terms is also easing the pressure on the funding side. From the chart, it can be seen that this ratio has already dropped below the historical average of 20.6%, now only around 15.7%, close to historical lows. In the past, whenever liquidity began to rise from low levels, risky assets generally experienced a round of value recovery.

Looking back over the past fifteen years, each segment has been quite representative:

From 2009 to 2013, after the financial crisis, QE was implemented, money gradually piled up, and excess liquidity climbed from over 12% all the way above 20%; from 2014 to 2018, QE stopped and balance sheet reduction began, liquidity receded, with the pace during this period slowing down, then further down, ultimately dropping to 11% in 2019, directly triggering that repo storm; during the pandemic from 2020 to 2021, the Federal Reserve fully opened the floodgates, unlimited QE pushed liquidity to its peak, with the ratio surging above 32% in 2021, the explosive growth in asset consistency was a product of that time; from 2022 to 2024, entering a rhythm of interest rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, high inflation pressing down, reserves decreasing all the way, excess liquidity smashed down from its peak, by the end of 2024, it would be back to around 19%, aligning with the historical average line; and now in 2025–2026, the entire banking system's funding situation has approached a 'tight balance', even slightly tighter, with only 15.7% left, already significantly below the average line.

In summary: This round of liquidity has fallen to a historically low range, leaving room for movement, policies are beginning to lean towards easing, and the main line moving forward is to see when it truly begins to rise again, which is usually a key point for risky assets to shift from weak to strong.