The correction in Bitcoin's price deepened after the FOMC's decision to lower interest rates. Over the past 30 days, the rate has dropped by about 13%, and nearly 4% over the past week. The entire movement still fits into a slow, gradual downward phase that has been ongoing since the peak in October.
However, now two on-chain signals show something that hasn't appeared before in this decline. These signals suggest that the correction may be approaching its end — if Bitcoin makes the necessary move.
Two indicators suggest a possible reversal
Short-term capitulation is now clearly visible. Realized profit and loss data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are still recording significant losses. Typically, this state occurs at the end of a correction, not in the middle of it, as panicked selling at a loss is often a sign of exhaustion in the movement.
This corresponds to what HODL waves show.
HODL waves measure how many Bitcoins each 'age group' holds — from very new to very old coins. They show which groups are accumulating and which are selling. In the second half of November, the group holding from one day to a week had 6.2% of the supply. By December 10, their share had dropped to just 2%.
This is a massive drop of 68% and signals mass short-term selling. Typically, this ends a correction rather than starting one. Additionally, selling in this group also displaces speculative capital from the asset.
Another signal comes from the Exchange Net Position Change indicator. It measures how many coins appear or disappear from exchanges daily.
On November 27, the balance was +5,103 BTC (coins are going to exchanges).
However, on December 10, flows reversed to –43,292 BTC, which is over an 8.4-fold change from inflow to outflow.
A similar change occurred between September 17 and 25. According to CoinGecko, after this reversal, the Bitcoin price soared towards its record above $126,000.
The same combination is now forming — short-term capitulation and strong outflows. Together, they create the clearest signal of a trend change in this correction so far.
Does the Bitcoin price need to rise by 4% to break out?
If these signals actually indicate a reversal, the BTC price chart should confirm it. The Bitcoin price is moving within a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow down at the same rate. Each side has only two points of contact, so both trend lines are weak. A small impulse can break through the entire structure in either direction.
This breakout is clear: Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,140, which is only about 4% above current levels. This level coincides with horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the triangle. A clean breakout will open the way to $97,320, and then to $101,850.
On the downside, the nearest risk level is $90,180. A daily close below this weakens the bullish scenario. If this level falls, the next important support is $87,010. Losing this level could open the path to $80,640, where the broad bullish scenario breaks.
At this moment, the setup is neutral, but the situation is improving. Short-term capitulation and large outflows give Bitcoin a chance to finish the correction. However, all of this is conditional on a breakout of 4%.
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