Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices are trading in a bullish atmosphere this week as the leading cryptocurrency and two safe-haven assets, gold and silver, observe the situation following the Fed's interest rate decision.
After policymakers reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, data shows that the stock market is no longer sending fear signals. This is the first major change since early October.
Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Price Outlook... Stock Market Relief
The U.S. stock market hit an all-time high on Thursday, December 11. Analysts expect further upward momentum. This trend follows the Fed's decision to lower interest rates, which generally has a positive effect on the stock market.
As borrowing costs decrease, corporate profits increase. This promotes corporate investment, increasing the value of future earnings. When credit becomes cheaper, consumer spending also rises, and investors shift funds from bonds to stocks in pursuit of higher returns.
All of this increases market liquidity and risk appetite. It serves as a driving force for stock prices across most sectors. For this reason, the stock market is no longer showing fear signals.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, gold, and silver are also driving similar optimism. Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices are soaring due to declining holding costs and rising inflation expectations.
Signs of a Bitcoin price reversal... liquidity inflow
In the daily chart of Bitcoin, the price shows a clear recovery within an upward channel. This channel formed after a sharp drop from the early October peak.
Prices are still forming below the major moving averages (50-day, 100-day: $96,583, $101,943). Nevertheless, Bitcoin is showing early signs of trend stabilization. Recent lows are forming higher than previous lows, indicating a typical recovery pattern.
A high volume point appears around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the volume profile indicating an upward trend (green horizontal bars). This suggests that buying pressure can maintain the $90,358 area as a significant support level.
This price range can play a central role in the direction change. It may also serve as a starting point for the next upward movement.
If the candle close is formed above $90,358, Bitcoin can aim for a high liquidity area between $98,000 and $103,000.
Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator remains neutral. This suggests that there is room for additional movement in either direction.
The AO indicator (Awesome Oscillator) histogram is moving into positive territory and signaling green. This indicates that upward momentum is strengthening.
However, the continuation of the short-term uptrend depends on whether the upward channel structure is maintained. If it falls below the channel's lower boundary and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($90,358), Bitcoin will be exposed to downward pressure. If the selling pressure continues, the price may move towards the $86,000 and $80,600 range.
The main challenge is regaining the moving averages, especially the 50-day and 100-day lines ($96,583, $101,943).
In the past, Bitcoin gained momentum after breaking through this moving average line during the intermediate cycle correction period.
Overall, Bitcoin is showing stable recovery, increased trading volume, and a healthy upward channel. However, the main confirmation signal will only emerge when it recovers the psychological price level of $100,000.
Gold strengthens momentum by breaking through major resistance.
In the XAU/USD 4-hour chart, the gold price is attempting to break through a long-standing compressed symmetrical triangle pattern. This technical pattern formed after a significant drop of $490 (-11.19%) at the beginning of the quarter.
The symmetrical triangle at the top of the uptrend often acts as a continuation pattern moving in the same direction after a correction. The breakout of the gold price aligns with theory, having broken the downward trend line with strong momentum.
The target price of the triangle pattern is about $4,720, indicating a potential upward movement of over 11% compared to the breakout area.
Currently, the gold price is stabilizing near the breakout candle close of $4,273. If gold maintains above the upper boundary of the triangle, the bullish structure will continue.
Traders waiting to enter a long position in XAU/USD should ideally do so after successfully confirming a retest of the upper trend line.
The RSI is at a midpoint (65) but leans towards the upside. Gold is not in an overbought state, and momentum is on the rise. This presents a healthy condition for sustained increases.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are crossing in a bullish direction and are widening. This indicates that upward energy is increasing.
The main support levels are $4,180, $4,140, $4,098, and $3,998 (previous correction low). As long as the gold price stays above this range, buying pressure will remain dominant.
It is noteworthy that the breakout of gold aligns with broader macro trends. This is related to increasing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation expectations, and strong demand from central banks.
Technically, the structure also supports the possibility of testing recent highs again and potentially breaking through.
Silver price long-term cup and handle signal... upward target
The decades-long chart of silver prices shows one of the strongest long-term upward structures among commodities. This is a large cup and handle pattern breakout.
The cup extends from the 1980 peak to the 2011 resistance, showing a volatility of up to 871%. The handle forms a small but strong pattern from 2011 to 2024, showing a movement of 152%. Both patterns converge at the same breakout line near $36, which is a range that silver prices have not broken through in over 40 years.
Recent candles show a decisive large buy breakout far exceeding this resistance area, suggesting a structural change rather than a temporary spike.
When commodities break through decades-long resistance lines, price discovery can proceed rapidly due to a lack of past resistance.
However, the RSI has entered overbought territory above 80. In long-term breakouts, this often reflects momentum rather than fatigue. The MACD has also strongly entered the bullish territory, confirming the upward trend.
If the breakout continues, the next major psychological resistance level is $70, and the historical peak of around $50 from 1980/2011 now acts as a support line.
In the silver market, the long-term bottoming process and years of supply constraints are evident, so a breakout above the historical peak cannot be ignored.
Meanwhile, since silver prices have historically been volatile, testing the $36 range again is also common before further upward movement.
