$BTC $ETH $SOL
Date: December 12, 2025
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear)
Market Snapshot
BTC: $91,657 (+1.99%)
ETH: $3,206 (+0.86%)
Macroeconomic Trend: The market is in the 'Fear' range. Last night, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. surged to 236,000, marking the largest single-week increase since the onset of the pandemic. The deterioration of employment data has intensified market concerns about an economic recession. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (to 3.50%-3.75%) this week came with an extremely rare 'three dissenting votes', reflecting significant internal divisions within the decision-making body regarding inflation rebound and economic downturn.
Today's core Alpha: Institutions embrace Solana, machine economy awakens
1. Solana receives dual endorsements from 'Wall Street + Sovereign Nations' (RWA explosion)
The Solana ecosystem is undergoing a transformation from meme frenzy to a regular army of RWA (real-world assets):
National-level application: The Bhutanese government announced that on December 17, its National Day, it will issue the first sovereign-backed gold token TER on the Solana chain. This token will be pegged 1:1 to Bhutan's treasury gold.
Institutional settlement: JPMorgan has completed a $50 million commercial paper issuance and settlement for Galaxy Digital on the Solana chain.
Interpretation: The choice of traditional finance and sovereign funds to use Solana instead of Ethereum proves that its high-performance advantage has become the preferred choice for carrying large-scale RWA assets.
2. New Ethereum narrative: ERC-8004 (Trustless Agents)
As ETH prices remain weak, the underlying technology is brewing a new round of explosion. The ERC-8004 standard has become the market focus and is regarded as the 'on-chain identity card' for AI agents.
Core functions: Empowering AI with independent trading and credibility accumulation through three major registries: Identity, Reputation, and Validation.
Economic closed loop: Achieving automated payments between machines through the x402 payment protocol.
Focus direction: This is a key bridge connecting Web3 and the trillion-dollar AI market, with a focus on relevant infrastructure projects (such as Virtuals, AltLayer, etc.).
3. Regulatory hammer falls: Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years
Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison in New York, a ruling higher than the prosecution's recommendation, marking the final settlement of the 2022 algorithmic stablecoin collapse. As the SOL tokens unlocked from FTX/Alameda are gradually absorbed by the market, the industry is turning the page on 'barbaric growth'.
Market and strategy analysis
BTC technical analysis: Bitcoin is currently fluctuating with reduced volume around the $92,000 level. Although unemployment data is bearish, the $90,000 level has strong support. Notably, open interest (OI) remains high, and caution is advised as major players may leverage macro sentiment for downward 'leveraged hunting'. Watch the resistance level at $94,200.
ETH technical analysis: The exchange rate continues to weaken, but with the support of the ERC-8004 narrative, there are signs of a warming fundamental outlook. Short-term support is at $3,140, and if it falls below, it may test the $3,000 integer level.
Operational strategy: Expectations of macroeconomic recession are rising, and market risk aversion is strong. It is advisable to focus on the Solana ecosystem (RWA concept) with independent narratives and early-stage AI agent infrastructure. When the panic index is below 30, gradually investing in quality assets remains a high-probability strategy.
