12.12 Market Analysis: Macroeconomic Weakness + Continuation of Trading Volume

The latest number of initial unemployment claims in the United States has risen sharply to 236,000, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with liquidity logic leaning positively towards risk assets.

From the market structure perspective, BTC is in a 1-2 month period of oscillation and trading opportunity window, with chips transitioning from short-term players to institutions and medium to long-term funds. This is a common characteristic at the bottom of a cycle; there will be fluctuations, but the overall direction remains bullish.

The three main drivers remain effective:

1. Continued accumulation by institutions

2. Strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts

3. Cryptocurrency regulation and policy friendliness

Strategic Thinking:

Focus on gradually positioning BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and patiently waiting for trend confirmation before breaking new highs.

Risk Warning:

Macroeconomic conditions and sentiment show volatility; maintain position discipline, do not chase highs, and avoid being fully invested.

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