Bitcoin has slipped below the $91,000 mark following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, a decision that introduced short-term volatility across risk assets. While market sentiment appears cautious, fresh on-chain data reveals a far more bullish underlying trend among long-term Bitcoin holders.
According to new insights from CryptoQuant, the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric on Binance has dropped sharply to 380, marking its lowest level since September 2017. This rare collapse in CDD signals that long-term Bitcoin holders and whales are refusing to sell, even as BTC trades near multi-month lows.
Why CDD Matters: Long-Term Holders Stay Firm
CDD measures the weight of older coins moving onto exchanges. Lower values indicate that the BTC being deposited is primarily from newer holders, not from veteran wallets with large, accumulated coin age.
With Bitcoin currently trading around $89,600, CryptoOnchain emphasizes that the divergence between price action and long-term holder behavior is unusually significant. Historically, BTC approaching or surpassing all-time highs has triggered a surge in CDD as early investors take profit. This has been a classic top formation pattern in multiple cycles.
But this cycle is different.Instead of older coins flooding exchanges, Exchange Inflow CDD is collapsing, suggesting that whales are not distributing supply despite recent corrections. CryptoOnchain notes that this reflects strong conviction among Smart Money, indicating that long-term investors do not consider current prices high enough for meaningful profit-taking.
This lack of sell pressure reduces available liquid supply, which has historically preceded strong bullish expansions. In short, whales appear more confident than the market suggests.
BTC Price Analysis: Testing Key Levels After FED Sell-Off
Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows price stabilizing just above $90,000 following last week’s soft decline. BTC is now compressed between two major moving averages:
200-day MA (support)
100-day MA (resistance)
This creates a classic squeeze structure, where Bitcoin holds a short-term floor but struggles to regain lost momentum. The current candle formation highlights a cluster of higher lows around $89K–$90K, signaling that buyers are maintaining defensive strength.
However, BTC still trades below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages—both key trend indicators—confirming a broader bearish bias. Rejection from the 100-day MA near $98K shows that bulls have yet to reclaim a decisive trend level.
Trading volume also remains muted. Despite the price bounce, buy-side conviction appears limited, reflecting cautious sentiment after the Fed rate cut and wider macro uncertainty.
If Bitcoin breaks below the 200-day MA, the next significant support sits near $84,000, opening the door to deeper downside. A strong recovery above the 100-day MA near $98,000 would indicate renewed bullish strength and could flip momentum back in favor of buyers.
Whales Signal Confidence, Not Fear
Despite short-term weakness, the collapse in Binance CDD to its lowest reading in eight years strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s largest holders are not selling. Historically, whale conviction at market lows has aligned with major accumulation phases and future upside expansions.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a fragile consolidation phase, but the long-term holder behavior behind the scenes paints a far more constructive picture for the next major move.
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