Last night the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, and as soon as the news came out, many friends immediately rushed in to ask me:

“Hey, shouldn’t a rate cut be good news and make BTC soar? Why did BTC initially react with a decline?”

In fact, what determines the market direction is not the two words “interest rate cut,” but rather the key phrase in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes:

—“Inflation still has uncertainties, so only one rate cut is expected in 2026.”

Don’t be fooled by how short this sentence is; it is the real trump card behind last night’s market fluctuations.

📌 1. What the market wants is not just a rate cut, but “continuous rate cuts.”

What everyone has been looking forward to is:

Next year there will be a large influx of liquidity → liquidity will return → crypto assets will soar → BTC, ETH will directly welcome a big bullish line.

But the Fed's one statement directly doused cold water:

Next year, at most once, don't think too much.

What does this mean?

→ Expectations have been downgraded.

→ The bulls' fantasies have been shattered.

→ The funds that had previously ambushed begin to realize profits.

Good news isn't good news; expectations are what constitute good news.

📌 2. The real bad news is not 'not lowering', but 'not daring to lower'

This time there are 3 dissenting votes within the Fed, and some even advocate against lowering interest rates.

What does this indicate?

The Fed is afraid inflation will recur.

As long as the United States is worried about inflation, crypto can't break out; the reason is simple:

➡ Money will not flood into high-volatility assets

➡ Funds will not be willing to bear long-term risks

➡ BTC naturally cannot break out of the 'one-sided bull' rhythm

In other words:

The more cautious the Fed is, the harder it is for the market to go crazy.


📌 3. So how will BTC's future unfold? The answer is just one sentence

—— Short-term fluctuations, long-term steady bull market.

Why? Because the structural logic hasn't changed:

✔ The United States doesn't dare to tighten infinitely (otherwise it will cripple the economy)

✔ The global crypto adoption rate continues to rise

✔ ETF, institutions, and congressional regulation are all 'silently beneficial'

✔ BTC is still being absorbed as a 'substitute asset' by funds from various countries every day

Let me add a dose of reality—

Right now is just the emotional fluctuation before the bull market, not the end of the bull market.

📌 4. Strategy for ordinary people: Don't be led by the news

The market fell yesterday not because of bad news, but because:

“Smart money buys on expectations and sells on facts.”

If you understand this sentence, you will understand:

➡ The trend isn't bad

➡ The rhythm is changing

➡ The period of fluctuation is the stage where ordinary people are most likely to make mistakes

➡ It is also the stage where layouts are easiest to make

Don't panic, don't chase, don't gamble on short-term.

Preserve strength, wait for the 'next real expectation gap' to appear.

📌 The last statement (key point)

The market always first rises on expectations, falls on realization, and trends emerge last.

Whoever can understand the Fed's 'next statement' can earn money a year in advance.#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH $BNB