灰星BTC

Recently, ETH has been fluctuating in the range of $3,100–$3,240. yellow.com+2Brave New Coin+2

From an on-chain & technical perspective, some analyses suggest that ETH has formed a "multi-year accumulation bottom" structure. Brave New Coin+1
On the other hand, global macroeconomic factors, interest rate expectations, regulation/ETF inflows, and other external factors present ETH with strong uncertainty — with both support and risks. KuCoin+2Brave New Coin+2
📍Key levels & technical structure

Support levels / significance / importance: $2,850 – $2,780 – $2,720. If these levels are lost, the upward foundation will be broken, and there may be a pullback to this area. Brave New Coin+1 Mid-term support / key psychological level: $3,000. Currently, ETH has rebounded/formed a bottom multiple times around this level, providing dual support psychologically and technically. yellow.com Recent resistance: $3,100 – $3,140 – $3,200. If broken, it may open up upward space, with a short-term target looking towards $3,300–$3,500. yellow.com+1 Mid-term upper target / strong resistance zone: $3,400 – $3,700 or even higher. If the market's liquidity + fundamentals align, this could be the next target area for upward movement. Gate.com+2Binance+2

Binance has moved its operating entity to Abu Dhabi and divided its business into three companies for better compliance and security, but your daily usage will not be affected.
The operating entity has moved to Abu Dhabi (ADGM)

Binance has obtained a local license and will be managed by three licensed companies in Abu Dhabi starting from January 5, 2026:

Spot/Contract trading
Asset custody & clearing
Over-the-counter, wealth management, and other services

2⃣ User experience remains almost unchanged

Login, asset balance, and order history remain unchanged
Functions can still be used as usual, and positions will also be retained

3⃣ No action is required from you

The moment Putin stepped onto the red carpet in India, everyone was stunned.

Modi not only personally welcomed him at the airport but also gave Putin a big hug, and then directly took him back to the official residence for a private dinner — they chatted for a full three hours.

Such a specification left even the West dumbfounded: after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this was Putin's first visit to India, and he received such high honors?

The British media were frantic, and the Americans were even more anxious, like ants on a hot pan.

But what truly shocked the outside world was that before attending the dinner, Putin suddenly mentioned China during an interview.

China and India are both Russia's closest friends, and Moscow cherishes them greatly. Russia has no right to intervene in Sino-Indian issues, and believes that the two countries will resolve them on their own.

Brothers, I am the Gray Star.

ETH is currently stuck at $3135, like being nailed to a cross, both bulls and bears are holding back big moves.

In short: don't act rashly before the direction is clear, today only focus on two positions—3050 & 3239.

📍 Core market

Resistance: 3239
Support: 3050-3100
The moving average position tells us:

MA30 is firmly pressing down above 3239, medium-term trend is bearish.

Market data is more exciting:

3135.16-3135.19 piled up orders
Maximum sell order 67.6 ETH
Commission ratio -0.81%

👉 Bulls and bears are at a standstill at this point, and a breakout could happen at any time.
📈 Three possible approaches (my personal probability judgment)

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows:

📌 In November 2025, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports reached 3.9 trillion yuan

📌 Year-on-year growth of 4.1% — an increase of a full 4 percentage points compared to last month!

Among them:

Exports of 2.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7%
Imports of 1.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%

More importantly:

➡️ Our country's imports and exports have maintained year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months!

➡️ In the first 11 months, total imports and exports reached 41.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year

What does this indicate?

1）External demand is recovering

2）The domestic economy is emerging from the bottom

3）Market risk appetite may gradually recover in the future

The entire industry is losing interest in the airdrop model
Recently, analysis has pointed out that since 2023-2024, many Web3 protocols' reliance on 'continuously attracting users through airdrops' is decreasing — because the token prices and liquidity performance after airdrops are often poor. Many projects have found that airdrops have limited help for long-term user retention and ecosystem development. ChainCatcher+2Trakx+2

There is also the view that the current wave of airdrops may have peaked, and after a large number of airdrop projects have been distributed, the ecosystem may shift to 'more practical incentive methods/value return mechanisms.' ChainCatcher+1

Real-time price:

3,132.5｜+3.2%

A very noteworthy piece of data has just made it to the hot topics:

According to Glassnode monitoring, the circulating ETH balance on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since the birth of Ethereum in 2015.

What does this mean?

💧 The 'live water' that can be circulated and used for selling is rapidly decreasing.

An increasing amount of ETH is being transferred to on-chain wallets, staking pools, and other long-term holding scenarios, instead of being parked on exchanges waiting to be sold.
Such behavior is generally considered to be more of a medium to long-term layout rather than short-term speculation.

今日新华社权威信息显示：政治局会议提出，

将 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量与增量政策的合力效应，增强逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提高宏观政策的协调性与有效性。

📌 这意味着什么？（宏观影响解读）

流动性可能进一步改善：宽松政策往往意味着市场资金压力缓解，有利于风险资产回暖。
逆周期调节加强：表明当前经济环境下，政策会倾向于托底支持经济稳定。
财政+货币双发力：可能带来资金更好地流入实体与资本市场，提升整体市场信心。
对数字资产/币圈可能的影响

方向可能变化市场风险偏好有机会逐步回暖加密市场流动性或受益于宽松节奏杠杆与避险行为波动将加大，短线情绪更敏感BTC/ETH/主流币或成最先受益的品种
🔍 当前币圈热门讨论点

ETH刚刚出现大幅波动，短线情绪仍然脆弱
宽松政策可能成为缓冲情绪的核心变量
未来 1-2 周走势或成为重要拐点
🧠 个人观点（非建议，仅交流）
短期波动可能仍在继续，但如果宏观宽松节奏兑现，

中长期看利好金融资产估值修复，

留给提前布局的时间可能不多。
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH

The overall market atmosphere is weak, and liquidity is tight.
Recent macro uncertainties + regulatory pressures + capital withdrawal have led to an emotional response, causing panic selling.
ETH, as a risk asset, is under pressure during turmoil, with significant short-term volatility.

Here's my take: this drop has both warnings and hints.

Warning

Short-term market sentiment is very fragile, so don't blindly chase highs.
Stablecoins/OTC deposit and withdrawal channels are unstable, raising concerns about overall liquidity.
There may be even greater fluctuations in the future.

Opportunity/Hints:

The sharp drop has caused psychological and chip layering; those with patience may obtain 'cheap chips' at low levels.

Not illegal, feel free to play.

You may have heard this countless times.
But the truth is:

You holding BTC, ETH, and USDT are walking in a gray area—it's not illegal, but it may not be protected either.
1. Personal holding ≠ absolute safety

Yes—

Personal holding of virtual currency and peer-to-peer transactions do not currently constitute a violation of the law.

But you must see two things clearly:

If the coin is lost, no one may care.

Hacked, scammed, or transferred?

The police may tell you:

Virtual currency transactions are not protected by law and will not be filed.

Many people think that 'interest rate cuts = good news', but what really determines the market direction may not be the rate cut itself, but Powell's speech half an hour after the cut.

This situation has occurred multiple times in history:

📌The market surged after the interest rate decision was announced.

📌The subsequent press conference directly reversed the situation with a single sentence.

It even triggered a V-shaped market.

This time will be more special:
The current interest rate has dropped to 3.5% in the neutral range, which can no longer be considered strictly tightening.
Inflation is still 3% above the target, and the pressure remains.
Powell has previously publicly expressed that he does not want to start cutting rates too early.
There is a huge divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's stance.

Today is another day that seems calm on the surface, but is actually full of undercurrents.

If you only focus on the K-line, all you see is consolidation;

But if you look at the news, you'll find that— the water beneath the surface has already started to boil.

Summarizing today's three most critical highlights👇
① The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates continues to heat up
The latest interest rate forecast data shows:

📍 The probability of a rate cut in December is as high as 87%

📍 The market almost unanimously believes that a rate cut cycle will begin

According to historical patterns, rate cuts often mean a return of liquidity, and risky assets never remain indifferent.

But why is the market weak now? It indicates one thing:

I just saw the data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, and the biggest feeling it gives is—

The rate cut is already a done deal, but the market shows no signs of improvement.

See the picture 👇

🔹The probability of a rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% on December 11th is as high as 87%

🔹The probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% is only 13%

Logically, this probability structure should be super favorable—

In every previous instance when a rate cut cycle was confirmed to start, the market experienced a comprehensive rise.

But what about now?

BTC has no strength even for a rebound, and ETH is even more lifeless, with various altcoins lying in a heap.
🧠 The question arises: Since the favorable conditions are certain, why can't it rise?

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently dropped significantly, falling below $90,000 again — the overall cryptocurrency market has been under pressure in the past 24 hours, and risk appetite has declined. Binance+2CoinDesk+2
Meanwhile, the performance of Ethereum (ETH) has shown some divergence, with some analysts pointing out that ETH's structure may be stronger than BTC's. The Economic Times+1
Recently, institutions have continued to downplay the enthusiasm for cryptocurrency ETFs/fund inflows, coupled with fluctuations in the macro environment and interest rate expectations, leading to a decline in mainstream assets and some altcoins. Phemex+1
Against the backdrop of tightening global regulatory environments, some European countries are reviewing the risks of cryptocurrency investments, warning retail investors to be cautious about 'high yield promises'. Reuters+1

Recently, the overall market sentiment has been very weak,

Various altcoins have fallen harder than mainstream ones, the more unwanted they are, the heavier they fall.

In this environment, everyone generally dares not to enter the market lightly.
However, I have organized some tracks over the past few days, purely personal observations and not recommendations:
📌 Category One: Projects with income, buybacks, and more stable fundamentals

These projects at least still have real cash flow support:

PYTH
CRV
ETHFI
Intuitive feeling:
Like ENA, as a third-party stablecoin, the market discussion and story are still there.
📌 Category Two: L1 / L2 tracks that have been beaten down to floor prices

After being here for so long, you should have discovered a harsh truth:

90% of people in this market are destined to lose money, only a few can really make a profit.
So where is the difference?

📌 The reasons most people lose money

Relying on emotional trading

Only getting excited when it goes up, panicking when it goes down.

When the market fluctuates, logic gets thrown out the window.

Liking to predict, rather than respond

"It will definitely go up" "It will surely break through"

The market didn't make you lose; your obsession did.
Short-sighted

Only focusing on whether there's profit today, rather than on the system and planning.
Undervaluing risk management

No stop-loss, fully invested, frequently increasing positions.

Recently, I observed an interesting phenomenon:

In the same market condition, some people are anxious, some are excited, and some are indifferent.

Why is the difference so large? Because they are standing in different positions.

📉 Those who focus on the 1-hour candlestick chart:

Afraid of missing out when it rises a bit, afraid of going to zero when it drops a bit, emotions are like a roller coaster.

📈 Those who look at long-term cycles:

They do not care about short-term fluctuations and are always waiting for certain opportunities.
You will find that the most stable and profitable people in the crypto space share three common points:
💡 01. They do not predict the market, only study the trend.

When the trend is upward, follow the trend; when the trend is downward, control your position.

In recent days, everyone should have felt the market's fatigue.

Clearly, such a significant good news of interest rate cuts is right in front, yet the mainstream can't rise, instead becoming more sluggish as the event approaches.

This kind of trend actually gives a very obvious signal—

The market has already overdrawn expectations in advance, and has finished rising before the good news is announced.

Historically, this situation has occurred many times:

The most exciting phase of expectations
The landing phase instead cools down

Emotions switch from enthusiasm to calmness and even disappointment

There are still 4 days left until the expected time point.

In theory, the market may experience a wave of emotional pullback and repeated fluctuations before significant nodes.

Today, it is clearly felt—

The overall market sentiment suddenly cooled down.

Whether in communities or public squares, discussions about rising prices and hot coins that used to happen daily have now ceased; everyone is quiet to the point of being a little scary.

But there is an interesting phenomenon:

The lower the sentiment, the more intense the fluctuations.

Fear and greed are, after all, the accelerators of this market.

Several things happened in the past week:

Mainstream assets began to stabilize after a pullback

The macro environment has entered a wait-and-see period, and the market is waiting for new policy signals

Investor sentiment quickly shifted from greed to caution

Just now, a major news story is trending:

In the OTC markets of multiple mainstream exchanges, the quote for USDT against the RMB has first broken 7 yuan, dropping to 6.99 yuan at one point — this means that 1 USDT ≈ 6.99 RMB, no longer equal to the exchange rate of about 1 USD to 7.1 RMB. Bitget+1

At the same time, Tether, which issues USDT, has recently had its credit rating downgraded by an international rating agency — its stability rating has been lowered from 'restricted' to 'weak'. The reason is that its reserves have increasingly included high-risk assets. AAStocks+1

These two matters combined have made many people restless: the original perception that stablecoins = '1 USD = 1 U = RMB exchange rate stable anchor' is collapsing.