I just saw the data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, and the biggest feeling it gives is—

The rate cut is already a done deal, but the market shows no signs of improvement.

See the picture 👇

🔹The probability of a rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% on December 11th is as high as 87%

🔹The probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% is only 13%

Logically, this probability structure should be super favorable—

In every previous instance when a rate cut cycle was confirmed to start, the market experienced a comprehensive rise.

But what about now?

BTC has no strength even for a rebound, and ETH is even more lifeless, with various altcoins lying in a heap.

🧠 The question arises: Since the favorable conditions are certain, why can't it rise?

One sentence explanation—

If capital does not enter, good news is useless.

The biggest problem now is not the news, but:
Tightening domestic and international regulations, and a significant decrease in risk appetite.

The environment for capital inflow and outflow is restricted, and capital continues to withdraw.

Institutions are waiting for a lower position and are unwilling to lift the price.

Retail investors are seriously panicked, and even rebound capital has no one to take it.

So now the market looks like 'stagnant water'—eerily quiet.

📌 What does this mean?

Many people fantasize that:

"Once the interest rate cut is confirmed, it will soar directly."

But from the charts and market performance:

Before the good news is realized, it may continue to drop; when it truly starts, it will depend on capital, not on news.


In other words:

👉 The market is driven not by news, but by capital.

👉 There is no capital now; even good news is just paper value.

👉 The real opportunity lies in the return of capital after the emotional freezing point.

📍 Summary

📍 The expectation for interest rate cuts is so strong, yet the coin price is completely stable.

📍 This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of extreme capital contraction.

📍 In the short term, it may still experience weak fluctuations or even continue to probe the bottom.

📍 What is truly important is not December 11th, but when capital will re-enter the market.

Now is the watershed between 'patience vs impatience.'

The more desperate the market, the closer it is to the next real opportunity.

In summary:

It is not news that determines the market, but capital that determines the market.#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察