Yili Hua mentioned the Wall Street consensus and upgraded deflation, which sounds tempting, but it's like telling you there's treasure ahead without warning you about the traps along the way.
Right now, the news and technical aspects are in a tug-of-war. Those who understand can make a fortune, while those who don't can only watch helplessly. Let's carefully analyze the good opportunities and big pitfalls in this news.
The Wall Street consensus is like adding fuel to long-term investments; it's not a signal for short-term prices to soar immediately. The SEC chair's statements and the tokenization of U.S. debt equate to giving Ethereum an official stamp of approval, and its future value is indeed worth looking forward to. However, institutions won't build positions that quickly; they won't buy at high prices. They will certainly first shake out the weak hands, lower the price, and then slowly buy.
The Fusaka upgrade is both a redefinition of value and a test of costs. Blob fees have risen sharply, burning over 1500 ETH in a day, which indicates that L2 is indeed being utilized, which is good for the long term of the mainnet. However, in the short term, high gas fees will dampen the enthusiasm for retail trading, resulting in a situation where the ecosystem looks prosperous, but the coin price doesn't rise.
Technically, the market has been thoroughly washed, and a trend reversal could happen at any time. The leverage ratio is at a historical low, and the inventory in the exchange is almost gone, which signals that the bears are weak and indicates that the market is very fragile. Once the price breaks below the key support level, there may not be many sellers, but there will be even fewer willing buyers, which could easily trigger a panic sell-off.
Personally, I think ETH is bullish today, so pay attention to the resistance range of 3400 - 3450. If the volume is sufficient and breaks through this range, the price could reach the limit of 3500 - 3600. At this position, you can consider shorting. From the overall trend at the end of the month, I am bearish, and shorting at this position is the safest.
So what should retail investors do now? Remember these three life-saving rules.
First, control your position. Don't let your position exceed 50% now; in uncertain market conditions, surviving is more important than making profits.
Second, make a good trading plan. Set observation points at 3140 and 3100. If the price does not break below, hold or buy a small amount on dips; if it breaks below, decisively reduce your position to below 30% and wait for clearer signals.
Third, don't be impulsive. Don't get carried away when you see news from Wall Street. Institutions buy slowly, and we should also buy slowly.
In this market where news and K-lines are competing against each other, the biggest problem for retail investors is information lag and emotional volatility. If you want to change this passive situation, pay attention to me and join my chat room to participate in every discussion. I will announce specific entry times and real-time news in the 👉Binance chat room every day. #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储降息 $ETH
