💥After the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on December 12, the core messaging focuses on interest rate cuts + balance sheet expansion, while releasing unexpectedly dovish signals. The key points are as follows:
1. Policy Implementation: An interest rate cut of 25 basis points as expected, with the federal funds rate range lowered to 3.5%-3.75%, and starting today, the first round of $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases will begin, officially initiating balance sheet expansion. $BTC
2. Key Statements: Powell acknowledged that the official non-farm employment data is "severely systematically overestimated," and after adjusting for errors, actual employment may have fallen into a monthly average decline of -20,000, emphasizing the need to closely monitor employment weakness to leave room for further easing. $ETH
3. Policy Tone: Clearly stating that "rate hikes are not the basic expectation," the current interest rate is in the "neutral range." Although the statement suggests that future rate cuts need to be cautiously evaluated based on data, the core balance has tilted toward "job preservation," countering internal hawkish disagreements. $BNB
4. 2026 Expectations: The dot plot shows that officials expect only one rate cut next year, but the market bets on a probability of 93.7% for two or more rate cuts, with some institutions even predicting a total rate cut of 100 basis points for the year.
For BTC, this messaging reinforces expectations of a loosening cycle in 2026. If liquidity continues to be released subsequently, it will support risk assets, and attention should be paid to whether the Fed's January meeting continues a dovish orientation. 🐶p u p p i e s 🐶
