The veterans in the crypto circle understand: market trends are never predicted through fortune-telling; they come from "news + chips + candlesticks" three punches. Today, the "climbing candlestick" on the 4-hour chart for SOL seems more like retail investors chasing after a rise, but it’s better described as institutions holding machine guns behind, "squeezing shorts"—this isn’t just my opinion; just look at the news that broke today: JPMorgan just issued $50 million in commercial paper on the SOL chain yesterday, and dYdX directly opened SOL spot trading for U.S. users, and with the ETF swallowing up $19 million today, this is not a "rebound"; it’s clearly that "institutions first welded the car door shut before stepping on the gas."
I was amused when I opened the market in the morning: that support level at 131.8 dollars, the shorts that smashed the market in the first half hour just emerged, directly pressed down by 30,000 long positions — this is not something retail investors can handle. Looking at that '5-wave structure' in the 4-hour chart: the (1) wave starting from 121.35 is a trial, the (2) wave retracing to 130 dollars is a washout, the (3) wave pushing to 140 dollars is a high exit? Wrong, today the (5) wave can stand firm at 138 dollars, the fundamental reason is 'liquidity reset' — in the last two weeks, the proportion of losing trades on SOL has always been over 60%, yesterday finally broke below 1, which means 'the retail investors who cut losses have been washed out,' now the ones holding positions are either institutions or old investors like you and me who 'lie flat until the end of time.'
For example: My fan opened a 20x long position at 130.43 dollars yesterday, now floating profit at 121%, this is not because he is skilled, but because he just happened to hit the 'rhythm of institutional manipulation.' Look at his margin ratio, only 3.5%, with a liquidation price of 115 dollars, what does this indicate? Institutions are not afraid of him being liquidated — because now even if it drops to 120 dollars, no one sells, but more people will buy the dip, this kind of 'buying more when it falls' market means that short positions coming in are just delivering heads.
But I have to pour a bucket of cold water: Don’t shout 'bull return' just because you see a red plate. Today at 138 dollars, this position is just stuck at the 20-day EMA resistance level, and just now 140 dollars tested three times without breaking through, indicating that 'short-term profit-taking is already on the run.' And don’t forget, the number of SOL validators is now only 800, the lowest in three years — this is not 'bad news exhausted,' but a 'potential landmine,' in case the Breakpoint conference tonight doesn’t bring good news, tomorrow morning’s opening could be a 'high and then fall back.'
But personally, I bet 0.5: Tonight SOL can touch 145 dollars. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is now stabilizing at 92k, and the capital overflow effect will definitely flood into altcoins, while SOL is currently the target with the most institutional holdings and the densest news — just like when ETH surged in 2021 and dragged SOL up, it's just history repeating itself.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: I have been in the crypto world for eight years, and I have seen too many newcomers who 'shout a hundred times when it rises, and curse the air when it falls.' Today's SOL market is essentially 'institutions using real money to teach you a lesson' — what you think is 'technical analysis' is just the K-line they’ve drawn; what you see as 'support and resistance' are all traps laid out by their chips. But back to the point, since the car door is already welded shut, it’s better to fasten your seatbelt — tomorrow morning I will keep an eye on the stop-loss level at 136 dollars, if it breaks, I will reduce my position, if it doesn’t, I will follow the institutions and sip some soup.
Twelve years in finance, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the crypto world: Insight into the market, steady progress, follow the Master’s teachings on how to achieve steady appreciation, there are risks and opportunities in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
